We extend the existing literature on food taxes targeting obesity. We systematically incorporate the implicit substitution between added sugars and solid fats into a comprehensive food demand system and evaluate the effect of taxes on sugars and fats. The approach conditions how food and obesity taxes affect total calorie intake. The proposed methodology accounts for the ability of consumers to substitute leaner low-fat and lowsugar items for rich food items within the same food group. This substitution is integrated into a calibrated demand system in addition to the substitution among food groups, using recent food intake data and existing demand elasticities. Simulations of taxes on added sugars and solid fat show that their impact on consumption patterns is understated and the induced welfare loss is overstated when abstracting from the substitution possibilities within food groups.
KeywordsFat, sugar, low-fat and low-sugar substitutes, food demand, health policy, nutrition, obesity, sweeteners, tax
Accounting for Product Substitution in the Analysis of Food Taxes Targeting ObesityZhen Miao, John C. Beghin, and Helen H. Jensen* This draft: October 3, 2011
AbstractWe extend the existing literature on food taxes targeting obesity. We systematically incorporate the implicit substitution between added sugars and solid fats into a comprehensive food demand system and evaluate the effect of taxes on sugars and fats. The approach conditions how food and obesity taxes affect total calorie intake. The proposed methodology accounts for the ability of consumers to substitute leaner low-fat and low-sugar items for rich food items within the same food group. This substitution is integrated into a calibrated demand system in addition to the substitution among food groups, using recent food intake data and existing demand elasticities.Simulations of taxes on added sugars and solid fat show that their impact on consumption patterns is understated and the induced welfare loss is overstated when abstracting from the substitution possibilities within food groups.Keywords: Fat; sugar; low-fat and low-sugar substitutes; food demand; health policy nutrition; obesity; sweeteners; tax.
Accounting for Product Substitution in the Analysis of Food Taxes Targeting ObesityThe United States faces a major health problem in the high prevalence of obesity and its underlying cause-an imbalance between energy intake and energy requirements (Ogden and Carroll, 2010;and Ogden et al. 2007). Obesity is associated with excessive morbidity and raises concerns about determinants of dietary choice. The growing prevalence of obesity and the social costs associated with poor dietary choices motivate government intervention because of externalities. Obesity has significant external effects on the health care system, employers, and other people (Bhattacharya and Bundorf 2005), which are typically not internalized when people make food choices. Health policies aim to encourage individuals to reduce excess calorie intake and choose healthier foods...