The effectiveness of quarantine of Wuhan city against the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID‐19): A well‐mixed SEIR model analysis

Abstract

A novel coronavirus pneumonia, first identified in Wuhan City and referred to as COVID-19 by the World Health Organization, has been quickly spreading to other cities and countries. To control the epidemic, the Chinese government mandated a quarantine of the Wuhan city on January 23, 2020. To explore the effectiveness of the quarantine of the Wuhan city against this epidemic, transmission dynamics of COVID-19 have been estimated. A well-mixed "susceptible exposed infectious recovered" (SEIR) compartmental model was employed to describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic based on epidemiological characteristics of individuals, clinical progression of COVID-19, and quarantine intervention measures of the authority. Considering infected individuals as contagious during the latency period, the well-mixed SEIR model fitting results based on the assumed contact rate of latent individuals are within 6-18, which represented the possible impact of quarantine and isolation interventions on disease infections, whereas other parameter were suppose as unchanged under the current intervention. The present study shows that, by reducing the contact rate of latent individuals, interventions such as quarantine and isolation can effectively reduce the potential peak number of

Mathematical model of COVID-19 intervention scenarios for São Paulo-Brazil

“…We used the SEIR compartment model to investigate the COVID-19 pandemic in Nevertheless, our results corroborate with the idea that COVID-19 transmission may occur in the pre-symptomatic phase and that COVID-19 patients may have an inconsiderable latent non-infectious period. The mean infectious period of 8 days is within expected range estimated by recent publications (4,22). We found hospitalization periods of 4.4 days and ICU period of 13.4 days for both Brazil and São Paulo.…”

“…It has also been debated whether environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, humidity) influence the behavior of the COVID-19 virus similar to the common cold and flu. Yet, the majority of the research investigating the virus has been conducted in environments different/opposite than that of Brazil and other countries in the southern hemisphere (4,5). In addition, Brazil faces many economical and sociocultural challenges that may impact containment, mitigation, and suppression strategies differently than countries that are the current focus of most prediction models (3).…”

Instantaneous R calculation for COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil

“…If there is a significant number of asymptomatic patients transmitting the virus isolation of only the high-risk population will be ineffective (Hellewell et al, 2020). Widespread social restrictions, therefore, are necessary for the effective control of the pandemic (Anastassopoulou et al, 2020;Hou et al, 2020). Outbreaks can be quantitativelly described by the reproduction number (R) (Heesterbeek and Dietz, 1996;Delamater et al, 2019) a common measure of pathogen spread.…”

Returning to orthopaedic business as usual after COVID-19: strategies and options

“…Over the last few weeks, the strategies to prevent virus spreading have become clear [6]: proper hygiene, quarantine, social distancing, self-isolation and community containment. These main strategies have been able to effectively 'flatten the curve' of COVID-19 infections and hence delay the time of peak infection.…”