The effectiveness of Light Rail transit in achieving regional CO2 emissions targets is linked to building energy use: insights from system dynamics modeling

Procter, Andrew C.; Bassi, Andrea M.; Kolling, Jenna; Cox, Llael; Flanders, Nicholas E.; Tanners, N.; Araujo, Rochelle

doi:10.1007/s10098-017-1343-z

Cited by 14 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Plus (+) signs indicate a positive association between variables, and minus (−) signs indicate a negative association between variables (an increase in A produces a decrease in B). This paper focuses on outcomes in Tier 1 most strongly impacted by changes in the land use sector, however Procter et al (2017) discusses the energy sector, and forthcoming papers will discuss other model outcomes impacted by changes in the transportation and economy sectors in more depth.…”

Section: Model Structure and Specificationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring synergies between transit investment and dense redevelopment: A scenario analysis in a rapidly urbanizing landscape

Coxa

Bassi²,

Kolling

et al. 2017

Landscape and Urban Planning

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Like many urban areas around the world, Durham and Orange counties in North Carolina, USA are experiencing population growth and sprawl that is putting stress on the transportation system. Light rail and denser transit-oriented development are being considered as possible solutions. However, local agencies and stakeholders are concerned the light rail may worsen housing affordability and have questioned whether investment in both light rail and dense redevelopment are necessary to achieve community goals. We developed an integrated system dynamics model to quantitatively explore the outcomes of these land use and transportation options across multiple societal dimensions. The model incorporates feedbacks among the land, transportation, economic, equity, and energy sectors. This paper uses the results of four model scenarios, run between 2000 and 2040, to address two main questions: (1) what role does redevelopment play in capturing the socioeconomic benefits of transit infrastructure investment? And (2) how do redevelopment and light-rail transit interact to affect housing and transportation affordability? We find that transit investment and dense redevelopment combine synergistically to better achieve the goals of the light-rail line, including economic development, mobility, and compact growth. However, housing affordability does worsen in the combined scenario, as transportation-cost savings are not sufficient to offset the rise in housing costs. We emphasize that model users may input their own assumptions to explore the dynamics of alternative scenarios. We demonstrate how spatially-aggregated systems models can complement traditional land use and transportation models in the regional planning process.

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Section: Model Structure and Specificationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring synergies between transit investment and dense redevelopment: A scenario analysis in a rapidly urbanizing landscape

Coxa

Bassi²,

Kolling

et al. 2017

Landscape and Urban Planning

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“…However, it is worth mentioning that three studies did not assess the impact of policies in a city, but in a specific region. Fontoura et al (2019a), Procter et al (2017) and Keith et al (2020) analyzed the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (Brazil), the Research Triangle (North Carolina, USA) and the USA, respectively.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fontoura (2019a) and Fontoura (2019b) analyze the impact of the Brazilian Urban Mobility Policy implementation, being the only study that exclusively evaluates the impact of a public policy. Procter et al (2017) proposed sustainable transportation policies and compared them with the goals set by the government. Finally, Liu et al (2010) and Ercan et al (2016) adjusted existing public policies, simulating ambitious scenarios.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamics for Sustainable Transportation Policies: A Systematic Literature Review

Fontoura

Ribeiro

2021

urbe, Rev. Bras. Gest. Urbana

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Systems Dynamics (SD) is an efficient method that allows to analyze systems with dynamic complexity and policy resistance. The holistic approach of SD is suitable to analyze the current transportation problems. Among the applications of SD in the transportation sector, the use of this tool in the development and implementation of sustainable transport policies stands out. In this context, this paper aims to conduct a systematic literature review to assess the use of SD in the development and implementation of urban policies focused on sustainable transportation. The results show that most studies analyze policies focused on reducing the negative externalities of transportation, highlighting the efforts to reduce air pollutant emissions and traffic congestion. However, we did not find a study that analyzes non-motorized and motorized modes by economic, environmental, social, spatial and traffic variables. At the end of this study, the gaps found in the literature are pointed out, being available to further exploration in future studies.

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“…Making informed decisions for reducing water consumption, energy use and carbon emissions Cox et al, 2017 Providing complement to traditional land use and transportation models in the regional planning process Dasgupta et al, 2017 Delineation of guideline for policy orientation concerning e-waste towards protection of human health and environment Ercan et al, 2017 Projecting the impacts of U.S. transportation system Fang et al, 2017 Analysing the sustainable development capacity under different scenarios Faust et al, 2017 Enabling the assessment of interdependencies between human and water sector infrastructure systems with parameters tailored to a city's unique characteristics Fu et al, 2017 Simulating and predicting spatiotemporal city-level net carbon emissions Geng et al, 2017 Enabling an analysis of variations in land use intensity under different scenarios Ghasemi et al, 2017 Stimulating management strategies dealing with Tehran metropolitan water resources system Guzman and Orjuela, 2017 Evaluating the impacts of possible policy interventions on transport sector and transport related emissions and to assist the decision-making process He et al, 2017 Analysing new influencing factors and establishing the quantitative relationship based on econometrics for predicting the electricity demand of Tianjin Liu et al, 2017a Simulating land use development strategies by considering various socioeconomic and natural climatic factors for policy recommendation Liu et al, 2017b Simulating, forecasting and displaying geographical distributions and land use change Macmillan and Woodcock, 2017 Policy recommendation for different cities on cycling trajectory Moon et al, 2017 Projecting changes in climate change-induced risks and providing policy alternatives to mitigate the risks of climate change effects in urban and rural areas Procter et al, 2017 Enabling policy makers to make strategic choices about regional growth with utilization of light rail transit Sahin et al, 2017 Allowing water planners to explore policy alternatives and optimize bestpractice decisions considering water conservation and management Wan et al, 2017 Achieving coordinated development of social development and ecological environment Policy optimization for urban wetland water resources management Identification of different driving modes for urban growth management in different regions according to the functional positioning of their DPZ (continued) Faust et al, 2017;Xi and Poh, 2015). This was also combined with other topics, such as the environment, livelihood, security, and culture (Fernald et al, 2012;…”

Section: System Dynamics Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A number of papers focussed on narrow environmental topics, such as national park management in relation to urban development (Antunes et al, 2006), global warming and climate change (Fong et al, 2009;Allington et al, 2017;He et al, 2015;Moon et al, 2017), the ecological footprint (Jin et al, 2009), fossil-fuel emissions (Pataki et al, 2009;Hiasa et al, 2016;Procter et al, 2017), safety and terrorism (Thompson and Bank, 2010;Yu and Fang, 2017), ecosystem modelling (Jiang and Chen, 2011;Tsolakis and Anthopoulos, 2015;Xu and Kang, 2016), the self-sufficient and sustainable cities city (Park et al, 2013;Li et al, 2016;Wan et al, 2017;Fang et al, 2017), electricity demand forecasting (He et al, 2017) and chronic diseases in the urban environment (Brittin et al, 2015;Brittin et al, 2015).…”

Section: System Dynamics Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

System dynamics models for the simulation of sustainable urban development

Bach

Tustanovski²,

et al. 2019

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Purpose System dynamics is a whole-system modelling and learning approach, useful for tackling non-linear problems, such as sustainable urban development. The purpose of this paper is to review system dynamics applications in the simulation of sustainable urban development over a period from 2005 to 2017. Design/methodology/approach The analysis reveals that the number of applications of system dynamics modelling in the area of urban sustainable development increased in the analysed period. Research has changed its focus from the modelling of environmental problems to more complex models, portraying the multidimensional socio-economic processes that have an impact on the sustainability of urban development. Analysed case studies most often use the behaviour reproduction test for model validation, but without a unified approach. In most cases, modelling has been done in China, Germany and the USA, while urban development in the Eastern European countries, Africa and Latin America has not often been investigated. This paper indicates the knowledge gaps and suggests future research directions. Findings Papers that report the use of system dynamics modelling reveal a wide range of applications in urban sustainability. The analysis shows significant emphasis on environmental problems, while the interest for modelling social problems has been increasing during the last several years. Most of the modelled problems examine the sustainability of resources (land, water) and waste management, which are used for insights into the reasons for the system behaviour, forecasting future behaviour and policy testing. Originality/value The presented models were developed in most cases for the purpose of understanding the phenomena examined, as well as the future use of the models in policy planning. This brings us back to the need for greater stakeholder involvement, not only in the initial phase, but also during the whole modelling process, which could increase understanding, use and ownership of the models in the future, and thus increase their practical application.

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The effectiveness of Light Rail transit in achieving regional CO2 emissions targets is linked to building energy use: insights from system dynamics modeling

Cited by 14 publications

References 26 publications

Exploring synergies between transit investment and dense redevelopment: A scenario analysis in a rapidly urbanizing landscape

Exploring synergies between transit investment and dense redevelopment: A scenario analysis in a rapidly urbanizing landscape

System Dynamics for Sustainable Transportation Policies: A Systematic Literature Review

System dynamics models for the simulation of sustainable urban development

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