The Effect of Wind Stress on Seasonal Sea-Level Change on the Northwestern European Shelf

Hermans, Tim H. J.; Katsman, Caroline A.; Camargo, Carolina M.L.; Garner, Gregory G.; Kopp, Robert; Slangen, Aimée B. A.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-21-0636.1

Cited by 10 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…However, the contribution of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet is much smaller than the globally averaged contribution due to gravitational effects (Slangen et al, 2012). Additionally, the ocean dynamic sea level is expected to rise along the North-East Atlantic (Lyu et al, 2020;Hermans et al, 2022) and dynamic sea-level projections based on climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) also expect an acceleration. Combined, the expectation for the climate-driven sea-level change along the Dutch coast is close to the global mean changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s

Keizer

Bars

Valk

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. While a global acceleration of sea-level rise (SLR) during the 20th century is now established, locally acceleration is more difficult to detect because additional processes play a role which sometimes mask the acceleration. Here we study the rate of SLR along the coast of the Netherlands from six tide gauge records, covering the period 1890–2000. We focus on the influence of the wind field and the nodal tide variations on the local sea-level trend. We use four generalised additive models, including different predictive variables, and a parametric bootstrap method to compute the sea-level trend. From the sea-level trend, we obtain the continuous evolution of the rate of SLR and its uncertainty over the observational period through differentiation. Accounting for the nodal cycle only or both the nodal cycle and the wind influence on sea level reduces the standard error in the estimation of the rate of SLR. Moreover, accounting for both the nodal and wind influence changes the estimated rate of SLR, unmasking an acceleration of SLR that started in the 1960s. Our best-fitting statistical model yields a rate of SLR of about 1.8 [1.4–2.3] mm/yr in 1900–1919 and 1.5 [1.1–1.8] mm/yr in 1940–1959 compared to 3.0 [2.4–3.5] mm/yr over 2000–2019. If, apart from tidal, wind effects and fluctuations, sea level would have increased at a constant rate, then the probability (the p-value) of finding a rate difference between 1940–1959 and 2000–2019 of at least our estimate is smaller than 1 %. Our findings can be interpreted as an unequivocal sign of the acceleration of current SLR along the Dutch coast since the 1960s. This aligns with global SLR observations and expectations based on a physical understanding of SLR related to global warming. A small but significant part of the long-term sea-level trend is due to wind forcing related to a strengthening and northward shift of the jet stream. Additionally, we detect a multidecadal mode of sea-level variability forced by the wind with an amplitude of around 1 cm. We argue that it is related to multi-decadal sea surface temperature variations in the North Atlantic, similar to the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s

Keizer

Bars

Valk

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…UK Environment Prediction activity, Lewis et al 2019). In addition, dynamical downscaling of GCMs offers insight into seasonal to interannual sea-level variability at higher spatial resolution and could be combined with other sea-level components to form more comprehensive, higher spatiotemporal resolution LMSL projections or feed into impact studies (Hermans et al 2020, Hermans et al 2022.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The horizontal resolution of CMIP5 GCMs is typically around 100 km by 100 km, approximately the same as the median resolution of CMIP6 models (Hewitt et al 2022), however model resolution varies considerably across GCMs (Hermans et al 2020, Hewitt et al 2022. Around the UK, the relatively coarse resolution leads to limitations in accurately representing shallow shelf seas, noticeably the Irish Sea, connections to the North Sea and the English Channel (Hermans et al 2020, Hermans et al 2022. GCMs also do not simulate key processes such as tides and surges.…”

Section: Ocean Dynamic Sea Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The evolution of UK sea-level projections

Weeks

Fung²,

Harrison³

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Commun.

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The methods used to generate process-based global and local mean sea-level projections have evolved substantially over the last fifteen years, including improved process understanding, advances in ice-sheet modelling, the use of emulators and further development of high-end scenarios. During this time, two sets of UK national sea-level projections have been generated as part of the UK Climate Projections in 2009 (UKCP09; Lowe et al, 2009) and in 2018 (UKCP18; Palmer et al., 2018b). UKCP18 presented local mean sea-level projections for the UK coastline for the 21st century rooted in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and in methods used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), with an emulator-based methodology to provide extended projections to 2300 (Palmer et al, 2018a; 2020).We compare UKCP18 global and local mean sea-level projections with those presented in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, IPCC 2021a). We find the likely range projections (characterising the central two-thirds of the distribution) are broadly similar at 2150 to within 0.1 m, except at Edinburgh, where the maximum difference is 0.22 m under medium emissions. Differences arise due to higher contributions from sterodynamic processes and the Antarctic ice sheet, and higher or lower vertical land movement, in AR6 compared to UKCP18. We also compare high-end sea-level rise estimates, presented in AR6 and UKCP09, finding reasonable global and UK local agreement over the 21st century.We explore future paths for UK sea-level science considering both user needs for information and developments in modelling capability. Future UK sea-level projections would benefit from updated high-end sea-level rise scenarios which extend beyond 2100 and continued efforts to build understanding of observed sea-level change drivers. Alongside close collaboration with user groups this would enhance the utility of local sea-level projections by UK coastal practitioners and decision-makers.

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“…While these responses tend to be dampened in the global mean, they will have a larger impact on sea‐level change on local scales. On shorter time scales, sea‐level changes locally from season to season (Hermans et al., 2022) and on even shorter time scales as a result of storms, tides and waves (sea‐level extremes (e.g., Haigh et al., 2019; Wahl et al., 2017)). When considering adaptation to SLR, the knowledge on local (changing) extremes therefore needs to be taken into account, by using the framework presented here in combination with more tailored information on changing local sea‐level extremes or existing coastal protection measures to complete the analysis.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rethinking Sea‐Level Projections Using Families and Timing Differences

2022

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In the recent decade, many global and regional sea‐level rise (SLR) projections have been published, which raises questions for users. Here, we present a series of strategies to help users to see the forest for the trees, by reducing the number of choices to be made. First, we use the similarities in the methodologies and contributing sources of the projections to group 82 projections from 29 publications into only 8 families. Second, we focus on the timing of reaching several global mean SLR thresholds, and the uncertainty therein, rather than the projected value in the year 2100. Finally, we combine the information on timing and families to define three categories which can support decision making. For global mean SLR up to 0.50 m the differences in timing are small, regardless of climate scenario or family, clearly indicating a timing window for adaptation decisions. For larger global mean SLR (0.75–1.00 m), the climate scenario becomes more important for the uncertainties in timing, but the SLR threshold will be crossed within a limited window of time, supporting adaptation decision making on the medium to long term. Beyond 1.00 m the differences between the families and climate scenario strongly determine the uncertainties in timing, and more information is needed, for instance using early warning signals, before decisions for adaptation can be made. We make recommendations on how each of these three categories, combined with the lead time and lifespan of adaptation options, can inform decisions on adaptation strategies using adaptation pathways planning.

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The Effect of Wind Stress on Seasonal Sea-Level Change on the Northwestern European Shelf

Cited by 10 publications

References 41 publications

The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s

The acceleration of sea-level rise along the coast of the Netherlands started in the 1960s

The evolution of UK sea-level projections

Rethinking Sea‐Level Projections Using Families and Timing Differences

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