The Effect of Seasonal Climatic Anomalies on Zoo Visitation in Toronto (Canada) and the Implications for Projected Climate Change

Abstract

Abstract:This study uses a multi-year temporal climate analogue approach to explore zoo visitor responses to seasonal climatic anomalies and assess the impacts of projected climate change on zoo visitation in Toronto, Canada. A new method for selecting a representative weather station was introduced which ranks surrounding stations based on "climatic distance" rather than physical distance alone. Two years representing anomalously warm temperature conditions and two years representing climatically normal temperature conditions were identified for each season from within the study period from 1999 to 2015. Two years representing anomalously wet precipitation conditions and two years representing anomalously dry precipitation conditions were also identified. F-tests and t-tests were employed to determine if the apparent differences in zoo visitation between the temperature and precipitation paired groupings were statistically significant. A "selective ensemble" of seasonal Global Climate Model (GCM) output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report was used to determine when these anomalous temperature and precipitation conditions may become the norm in the future. When anomalously warm winters and springs occurred within the historical record, total zoo visitation in those seasons increased significantly. Inversely, when anomalously warm summers occurred, total summer season zoo visitation decreased significantly. Temperature anomalies in the autumn season did not result in any significant differences in total autumn season zoo visitation. Finally, apart from in the spring season, there were no significant differences in total zoo visitation between anomalously wet and dry seasons.

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“…The parameter estimates can be obtained by finding the parameter values maximizing Equation (8), in other words, applying the maximum likelihood estimation method. All the estimates for the two parameters, α and β, are statistically significant at the 1% level.…”

“…Martin [7] reported that the climate has a role as a facilitator, making tourism activities enjoyable. Hewer and Gough [8] explored and assessed zoo visitors' responses to seasonal climatic anomalies. Scott and Lemieux [9] explained that the tourism demand is motivated by certain climate and weather information.…”

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“…Time, which is often a proxy for population growth and zoo expansion, has also been shown to result in increased zoo attendance in Toronto [5,6], the UK [4], and Taiwan [10]. Furthermore, previous studies in Toronto [9] and Taiwan [10] have also identified the positive effect of "animal stars" and other special attractions on zoo attendance, along with the negative effect of external events, such as disease epidemics, political instability, and competing events. It is therefore important to consider the potentially confounding effects of non-climatic factors in any tourism climatology study which examines the effects of weather and climate variability on human participation.…”

“…The next series of tourism climatology papers that focused on zoo attendance emerged from the United States, looking at thermal comfort for the Phoenix and Atlanta zoos [7], as well as the effect of synoptic weather systems for the Atlanta and Indianapolis zoos [8]. Another tourism climatology paper that examined zoo attendance was conducted by Hewer and Gough [9], which looked at the effect of seasonal climatic anomalies on attendance at the Toronto Zoo (Toronto, ON, Canada). Interestingly, both the Pekins and Debbage [7] and the Hewer and Gough [9] papers were published as part of the last special issue on tourism climatology in the MDPI journal Atmosphere.…”

“…Another tourism climatology paper that examined zoo attendance was conducted by Hewer and Gough [9], which looked at the effect of seasonal climatic anomalies on attendance at the Toronto Zoo (Toronto, ON, Canada). Interestingly, both the Pekins and Debbage [7] and the Hewer and Gough [9] papers were published as part of the last special issue on tourism climatology in the MDPI journal Atmosphere. Most recently, Su and Lin [10] used a regression modeling approach similar to the work of Aylen et al [4] and Hewer and Gough [5] to explore the weather sensitivity of zoo attendance at the Taipei Zoo in Taiwan.…”