The Effect of Residence, School Status, Work Status, and Social Influence on the Prevalence of Alcohol Use Among Emerging Adults

Abstract

ABSTRACT. Objective:The fi rst year after high school is a transitional year, with increased independence from parental supervision, contact with other independent youth, and exposure to new environments, all of which may infl uence substance use. This article reports longitudinal predictors of change in the prevalence of alcohol use and heavy episodic drinking among adolescents and environmental correlates (i.e., residence, college attendance, and work status) with drinking the year after high school. Method: A national sample of study participants (N = 2,659; 55% female) in the NEXT Generation Health Study were followed annually from 10th grade (Wave 1) to the year after high school (Wave 4). Longitudinal binary outcomes, including recent (30-day) drinking and two measures of heavy episodic drinking, were examined. Transition models with generalized estimating equations estimated the effect of previous drinking behaviors, social infl uences, and current residential status and activity (school and /or work) on drinking prevalence. Results: Drinking increased from 40.5% among high school seniors (Wave 3) to 53.5% in Wave 4 for 30-day use, and from 29.0% to 41.2% for heavy episodic drinking. Signifi cant predictors of 30-day drinking included previous drinking status (odds ratio [OR] = 5.48), peer drinking often (OR = 3.25), parental expectations (OR = 0.91), and current year living on campus (OR = 2.10). The same signifi cant predictors with similar magnitudes were found for both measures of heavy episodic drinking. Peer use did not interact with college attendance or residence. Conclusions: Predictors of drinking and heavy episodic drinking during the fi rst year after high school included being White, living on campus, previous drinking, lower parental expectations, and having peers who drink. (J. Stud. Alcohol Drugs, 77, 121-132, 2016) Received: April 14, 2015. Revision: July 31, 2015. This research (contract number HHSN275201200001I) was supported by the intramural research program of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD); the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI); the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA); the Maternal and Child Health Bureau (MCHB) of the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA); and the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA).*Correspondence may be sent to Bruce Simons-Morton at the Division of Intramural Population Health Research, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, 6100 Executive Blvd., Room 7B13Q, MSC 7510, Bethesda MD 20892-7510, or via email at: mortonb@mail.nih.gov. T HE FIRST YEAR AFTER HIGH SCHOOL is transitional in numerous ways as many adolescents go to college, take jobs, and live away from home for the fi rst time. Greater independence may afford greater exposure to drinking and opportunities to drink (Arnett, 2005). Drinking prevalence during late adolescence and emerging adulthood is of particular int...

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Practical issues in using generalized estimating equations for inference on transitions in longitudinal data: What is being estimated?

“…Longitudinal sampling weights were used to reflect the population‐based sampling and to correct for nonresponse in the questionnaire. Simons‐Morton et al studied how drinking behavior was associated with environmental and social influence using the GEE transition model with exchangeable working correlation. The transition model we considered in this paper was similar but had fewer covariates, for illustrative purposes.…”

“…In our application, interest is in estimating the propensity toward either initiating consumption (0‐1, transition) or continuing consumption (1‐1, transition) of alcohol. Simons‐Morton et al examined various risk factors for this one‐year transition probability. They employed a GEE approach assuming a first‐order lagged dependence with an independence variance structure.…”

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