The effect of reciprocal connections between demographic decision making and land use on decadal dynamics of population and land-use change

Abstract

The effect of reciprocal connections between demographic decision making and land use on decadal dynamics of population and land-use change. Ecology and Society 19(2): 31. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ ES-06243-190231 Research, part of a Special Feature on Exploring Feedbacks in Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS) ABSTRACT. Although much focus has been given to the study of land use and land cover (LULC) and population change, studies have tended to focus on relationships in a single direction, for instance, the consequences of changing LULC for population processes, or the consequences of changing population dynamics for LULC. Given the highly coupled nature of human-environment systems, we cannot fully understand these systems without considering reciprocal causality, or "feedbacks." This analysis focuses on the Chitwan District of south-central Nepal, a high priority conservation area, and seeks to address the question of how feedbacks between land use and microlevel human decision making impact the decadal time scale dynamics of population and land-use change. It investigates two feedback loops connecting land use and demographic decision making: agricultural land use -marriage timing; and agricultural land use -fertility. Marriage is closely tied to land use in Chitwan because new households in Chitwan are established primarily after marriage. Fertility is connected to land use because of its linkage with population size and future new household formation. However, prior research in Chitwan has shown that residents of agricultural neighborhoods tend to marry earlier, and to have children sooner after marriage. Using an agent-based model, we compare model outcomes from scenarios with and without these feedback loops. Our results indicate that these feedbacks lead to statistically significant differences in population and in land-use outcomes. However, the sizes of these differences are relatively small in magnitude (less than 8% for the scenarios considered here), even over a 50-year time scale. These findings are a reminder that CHANS researchers must be careful to consider both effect size and significance when considering the policy implications of model outcomes.

Linking Attitudes, Policy, and Forest Cover Change in Buffer Zone Communities of Chitwan National Park, Nepal

“…In recent years, ABM has increasingly been used in these ways to enhance our understanding of coupled human and natural systems, complexity theory, human decision-making, cooperation, and demographic and socioeconomic influences on behavior (see e.g., An et al, 2005;An et al, 2006;. systems (see e.g., Berger, 2005;, forest management scenarios Villino, 2014), socio-demographic variables in Nepal Zvoleff & An, 2014), the effects of perceptions and decision making in coupled human and natural systems , and the effects of individual cooperation and interaction on LULCC (see e.g., Zvoleff & An, 2014).…”

Synthesis of human-nature feedbacks

“…This type of negative agricultural feedback is not always manifested as a management measure because it could also be spurred by individual agents themselves if they change their own behavior in response to availability of agricultural resources. This occurred in Zvoleff and An (2014) in which households living in economically poor rural areas faced complex choices about how to maximize livelihoods. The authors found that households living in agricultural areas tended to delay marriage to maximize their opportunity to gain income via farming, an effect that decreased population growth and thus changed agricultural production over the long term.…”

“…Long time lags give rise to loose feedbacks and short time lags to tight feedbacks. For example, Zvoleff and An (2014) found that the feedback created from changing the timing of first birth of offspring in the household on land use was a loose feedback that did not emerge for several decades, probably because of the generation time required for offspring to mature. In this case, the feedback would not have been detected if the authors had limited their research to a shorter time frame.…”

Historical Analysis of Riparian Vegetation Change in Response to Shifting Management Objectives on the Middle Rio Grande

“…Land 2017, 6, 29 3 of 23 ecosystem services received by society [26,27]. Understanding the objectives and connected decisions behind varying management practices is an essential part of placing this research within a CHANS framework [28,29].…”