The effect of oil and gas price and price volatility on rig activity in tight formations and OPEC strategy

Ansari, Esmail; Kaufmann, Robert K.

doi:10.1038/s41560-019-0350-1

Cited by 36 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…This difference can probably be explained by the relatively small dimension of our dataset (2016-2020) compared to the one used by Khalifa et al (2017Khalifa et al ( ) (1990Khalifa et al ( -2015. Moreover, Khalifa et al (2017) showed that the evidence of nonlinearity has softened in the most recent years, and similar evidence was also reported by Ansari and Kaufmann (2019) who used a linear cointegrated model.…”

Section: Multivariate Analysissupporting

confidence: 74%

Does the Hashrate Affect the Bitcoin Price?

Fantazzini

Kolodin

2020

JRFM

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This paper investigates the relationship between the bitcoin price and the hashrate by disentangling the effects of the energy efficiency of the bitcoin mining equipment, bitcoin halving, and of structural breaks on the price dynamics. For this purpose, we propose a methodology based on exponential smoothing to model the dynamics of the Bitcoin network energy efficiency. We consider either directly the hashrate or the bitcoin cost-of-production model (CPM) as a proxy for the hashrate, to take any nonlinearity into account. In the first examined subsample (01/08/2016–04/12/2017), the hashrate and the CPMs were never significant, while a significant cointegration relationship was found in the second subsample (11/12/2017–24/02/2020). The empirical evidence shows that it is better to consider the hashrate directly rather than its proxy represented by the CPM when modeling its relationship with the bitcoin price. Moreover, the causality is always unidirectional going from the bitcoin price to the hashrate (or its proxies), with lags ranging from one week up to six weeks later. These findings are consistent with a large literature in energy economics, which showed that oil and gas returns affect the purchase of the drilling rigs with a delay of up to three months, whereas the impact of changes in the rig count on oil and gas returns is limited or not significant.

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Section: Multivariate Analysissupporting

confidence: 74%

Does the Hashrate Affect the Bitcoin Price?

Fantazzini

Kolodin

2020

JRFM

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“…This difference can probably be explained by the relatively small dimension of our dataset (2016-2020) compared to the one used by Khalifa et al (2017Khalifa et al ( ) (1990Khalifa et al ( -2015. Moreover, Khalifa et al (2017) showed that the evidence of non-linearity has softened in the most recent years, and similar evidence was also reported by Ansari and Kaufmann (2019) who used a linear cointegrated model.…”

Section: Multivariate Analysissupporting

confidence: 73%

Does the Hashrate Affect the Bitcoin Price?

Fantazzini

Kolodin

2020

SSRN Journal

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“…Towards 2050, however, the spread between scenarios becomes broader again, with EWG/LUT and Green Cooperation at the upper end and the MIT outlook on the lower one. North America ( Figure 5) has recently fostered its fossil fuel dependency, and it relies increasingly on domestic shale oil and gas (see, e.g., Ansari, 2019;Ansari and Kaufmann, 2019). Oil imports and domestic coal are therefore losing importance (Mendelevitch et al, 2019).…”

Section: Asia-pacificmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

Ansari¹,

Holz²,

al-Kuhlani³

2020

EEEP

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We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organisations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod). Our study provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature, numerical framework, qualitative elaboration) and quantitative energy system indicators at the global and regional (Europe, Asia-Pacific region, North America) level; (ii) numerous observations from a verbal analysis intended to stimulate future research; and (iii) the discussion of our own outlook. Among other conclusions, we find that scenarios essentially carrying forward current policies and/or trends lead to future worlds that do not meet the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement. Interestingly, there are both normative and exploratory scenarios reaching the Paris Agreement, and there is no consensus between outlooks on how to attain low-emission futures towards 2050. Some scenarios rely on a very strong role of renewables, others on a substantial role of negative emission technologies with fossil fuel use, yet others on assuming decreasing energy demand. There is a strong variation between outlooks with respect to transparency on scenario generation, modelling approach, and data. We argue that, in addition to transparency, the actual inclusion of a qualitative analysis of drivers and storylines helps ensure the political, social and technological feasibility of scenarios.

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The effect of oil and gas price and price volatility on rig activity in tight formations and OPEC strategy

Cited by 36 publications

References 22 publications

Does the Hashrate Affect the Bitcoin Price?

Does the Hashrate Affect the Bitcoin Price?

Does the Hashrate Affect the Bitcoin Price?

Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

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