The effect of notification window length on the epidemiological impact of COVID-19 contact tracing mobile applications

Leng, Trystan; Hill, Edward M.; Keeling, Matthew James; Tildesley, Michael J.; Thompson, Robin N

doi:10.1038/s43856-022-00143-2

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The app’s technical sensitivity may benefit from more advanced proximity sensing technologies, such as ultra-wide band (UWB). Extending the contact elicitation window backward in time may help to identify source and sibling cases 50 , 51 . Finally, the integration of proximity sensing with an estimate of transmission risk in the immediate environment, e.g., through interaction with climate sensors, may further improve the transmission risk estimation algorithm 52 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Individual level analysis of digital proximity tracing for COVID-19 in Belgium highlights major bottlenecks

Geenen,

Raymenants,

Gorissen

et al. 2023

Nat Commun

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To complement labour-intensive conventional contact tracing, digital proximity tracing was implemented widely during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the privacy-centred design of the dominant Google-Apple exposure notification framework has hindered assessment of its effectiveness. Between October 2021 and January 2022, we systematically collected app use and notification receipt data within a test and trace programme targeting around 50,000 university students in Leuven, Belgium. Due to low success rates in each studied step of the digital notification cascade, only 4.3% of exposed contacts (CI: 2.8-6.1%) received such notifications, resulting in 10 times more cases detected through conventional contact tracing. Moreover, the infection risk of digitally traced contacts (5.0%; CI: 3.0–7.7%) was lower than that of conventionally traced non-app users (9.8%; CI: 8.8-10.7%; p = 0.002). Contrary to common perception as near instantaneous, there was a 1.2-day delay (CI: 0.6–2.2) between case PCR result and digital contact notification. These results highlight major limitations of a digital proximity tracing system based on the dominant framework.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Individual level analysis of digital proximity tracing for COVID-19 in Belgium highlights major bottlenecks

Geenen,

Raymenants,

Gorissen

et al. 2023

Nat Commun

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“…However, case identification may require a substantial public health investigation effort, and redundant isolation induces societal cost and burden for individuals 14,15 . Furthermore, more stringent control strategies may also lead to reduced efficacy due to non-adherence 16 . To mitigate these burdens, testing-based rules were applied during the COVID-19 pandemic 17,18 , which typically involved ending isolation following a specified number of successive negative PCR or antigen test results.…”

Section: Main Textmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the effectiveness of isolation strategies for managing mpox outbreaks with variable infectiousness profiles

Jeong,

Nishiyama,

Park

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The global outbreak of mpox (formerly monkeypox) in 2022 raised public awareness about the disease. The ensuing sporadic outbreaks in 2023 highlighted the importance of sustaining nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as case isolation and contact tracing. Using viral load data, we developed a modelling framework to characterize the various infectiousness profiles of infected individuals. We used this model to examine the potential effectiveness of two different possible isolation rules: specifically, rules permitting infected individuals to stop isolating after either a fixed-duration or following negative tests for infection. Our analysis showed large individual variations in the duration of viral shedding, ranging from about 23 to 50 days. The risk of infected individuals ending isolation too early (i.e., while they remained an infection risk) was estimated to be about 5% after 3 weeks of isolation. Unnecessary isolation after the end of the infectious period could be reduced by use of a testing-based rule. These findings support the choice of a 3-week isolation period following symptom onset if a fixed-duration rule is used, but also demonstrate how testing can mitigate unnecessarily prolonged isolation for those who have shorter infectious periods.

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Non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce COVID-19 transmission in the UK: a rapid mapping review and interactive evidence gap map

Duval,

Evans,

Sanders

et al. 2024

Journal of Public Health

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Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were crucial in the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, although uncertainties about their effectiveness remain. This work aimed to better understand the evidence generated during the pandemic on the effectiveness of NPIs implemented in the UK. Methods We conducted a rapid mapping review (search date: 1 March 2023) to identify primary studies reporting on the effectiveness of NPIs to reduce COVID-19 transmission. Included studies were displayed in an interactive evidence gap map. Results After removal of duplicates, 11 752 records were screened. Of these, 151 were included, including 100 modelling studies but only 2 randomized controlled trials and 10 longitudinal observational studies. Most studies reported on NPIs to identify and isolate those who are or may become infectious, and on NPIs to reduce the number of contacts. There was an evidence gap for hand and respiratory hygiene, ventilation and cleaning. Conclusions Our findings show that despite the large number of studies published, there is still a lack of robust evaluations of the NPIs implemented in the UK. There is a need to build evaluation into the design and implementation of public health interventions and policies from the start of any future pandemic or other public health emergency.

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The effect of notification window length on the epidemiological impact of COVID-19 contact tracing mobile applications

Cited by 4 publications

References 22 publications

Individual level analysis of digital proximity tracing for COVID-19 in Belgium highlights major bottlenecks

Individual level analysis of digital proximity tracing for COVID-19 in Belgium highlights major bottlenecks

Modelling the effectiveness of isolation strategies for managing mpox outbreaks with variable infectiousness profiles

Non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce COVID-19 transmission in the UK: a rapid mapping review and interactive evidence gap map

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