The Effect of Modeling Strategies on Assessments of Differential Warming Impacts of 0.5°C

Zhang, Wenxia; Zhou, Tianjun

doi:10.1029/2020ef001640

Cited by 13 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Interestingly, in the latter decades (2001-2020), a significant increasing trend of surface temperature was revealed in R-1, R-3, and R-4 at the rate of 0.6 • C, 0.8 • C, and 0.9 • C/year, respectively. Results of this study further support the findings of previous studies [52,[66][67][68], which described a significant decline in precipitation (10 to 15 mm/year), while the incline in air temperature (0.6 to 0.9 • C) detected drought/dry conditions in utmost parts of the study region. The temporal trend of PET observed an increasing pattern over many regions of SA except R-1, with higher intensity during 1981-2000 and severe extreme intensity during the period 2000-2020 (Figure 7q-t).…”

Section: Scpdsi Possible Linkages With Different Climate Factors and ...supporting

confidence: 91%

Recent Changes in Drought Events over South Asia and Their Possible Linkages with Climatic and Dynamic Factors

Ullah

Ren

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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South Asia is home to one of the fastest-growing populations in Asia, and human activities are leaving indelible marks on the land surface. Yet the likelihood of successive observed droughts in South Asia (SA) and its four subregions (R-1: semi-arid, R-2: arid, R-3: subtropical wet, and R-4: tropical wet and dry) remains poorly understood. Using the state-of-the-art self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), we examined the impact of different natural ocean variability modes on the evolution, severity, and magnitude of observed droughts across the four subregions that have distinct precipitation seasonality and cover key breadbaskets and highly vulnerable populations. The study revealed that dryness had significantly increased in R-1, R-2, and R-4 during 1981–2020. Temporal analysis revealed an increase in drought intensity for R-1 and R-4 since the 2000s, while a mixed behavior was observed in R-2 and R-3. Moreover, most of the sub-regions witnessed a substantial upsurge in annual precipitation, but a significant decrease in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) during 1981–2020. The increase in precipitation and the decline in VPD partially contributed to a significant rise in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and a decrease in dryness. In contrast, a strong positive correlation was found between drought index and precipitation, and NDVI across R-1, R-2, and R-4, whereas temperature and VPD exhibited a negative correlation over these regions. No obvious link was detected with El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and drought evolution, as explored for certain regions of SA. The findings showed the possibility that the precipitation changes over these regions had an insignificant relationship with ENSO, IOD, and drought onset. Thus, the study results highlight the need for considering interactions within the longer climate system in describing observed drought risks rather than aiming at drivers from an individual perspective.

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Section: Scpdsi Possible Linkages With Different Climate Factors and ...supporting

confidence: 91%

Recent Changes in Drought Events over South Asia and Their Possible Linkages with Climatic and Dynamic Factors

Ullah

Ren

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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“…The synergy combining the CESM large ensemble runs and the CESM low-warming runs provides an ideal framework to investigate the differences between transient and stabilized scenarios. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways and aerosol forcing both differ among the two different scenarios (Sanderson et al, 2017;Zhang & Zhou, 2021), other aspects of CESM being identical. Both experiments contain 11 ensemble members with different initial conditions.…”

Section: Data Sourcementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways and aerosol forcing both differ among the two different scenarios (Sanderson et al, 2017;Zhang and Zhou, 2021), other aspects of CESM being identical. Both experiments contain 11 ensemble members with different initial conditions.…”

Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 99%

Divergent Responses of Summer Precipitation in China to 1.5°C Global Warming in Transient and Stabilized Scenarios

Jiang

Hou

et al. 2021

Earth's Future

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The Paris Agreement adopted at the UNFCCC 21st conference of parties in 2015 aims to limit global warming to less than 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit the global warming level to 1.5°C (UNFCCC, 2015). The Agreement nevertheless did not mention any pathways to reach the goal. There are actually different scenarios to achieve the 1.5/2°C warming target. At least two possibilities are offered to us, with either a transient warming scenario or a stabilized one (Zhai et al., 2017). Although the two pathways can reach to an identical global warming level, climate change may be divergent at regional scale (Boulange et al., 2018;King et al., 2019).The Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), with its coordinated ensemble simulations from multiple models and multiple emission paths (including RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), is the most Abstract Responses of summer precipitation in China to global 1.5°C warming with transient and stabilized pathways are investigated through the analysis of the Common Earth System Model climate simulations. Precipitation increases more significantly in southeast China in the stabilized scenario compared with the transient one. The difference is primarily attributable to dynamic factors related to circulation changes and driven by differences of land-ocean thermal contrast between the two scenarios. The stabilized warming favors conditions of larger ocean warming and smaller land warming, leads to enhanced meridional temperature gradient and ultimately speeds up the jet stream over East Asia. Ageostrophic wind at the entrance of the accelerated jet strengthens ascending motion and precipitation along the coast of Asia from southeast China to India. The enhanced heating over India further induces a Kelvin-wave response with an anomalous anticyclone that contributes to the enhanced westward shifted of the western North Pacific Subtropical High. Southerly winds at the west flank of the anticyclone transport moisture northward from tropical oceans, and strengthen precipitation in southeast China.Plain Language Summary This study deals with the issue of regional precipitation response to 1.5°C global warming in accordance to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change for two different pathways, either transient or stabilized. Compared with the transient warming scenario, summer precipitation increases more significantly in southeast China in the stabilized one. This feature of distinctive precipitation responses, with strong implications for policy making in terms of regional climate mitigation and adaptation, is furthermore explored through a moisture budget analysis. Dynamic effect in relation to changes of atmospheric circulation is found to be the major contributor to the difference. The cause of the significant difference in precipitation in South China is attributed to changes of landocean thermal contrast, leading to a series of atmospheric circulation adjustments. Results presented here satisfactorily addressed, for the first time, the long-standing issue on global warming, name...

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“…To compare the effect of warming levels on the frequency of heatwaves and population exposure, the 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C warming periods are derived. According to the evolution of global mean near-surface air temperature with an 11-year running window of CESM1 historical and RCP8.5 simulations 65 , the timing of 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming relative to the preindustrial level (1850–1920) is 2029 (2024–2034), 2041 (2036–2046) and 2060 (2055–2065), respectively. The frequency of the 1.5 °C warming world is an average of 11 years during the warming period and the same for the 2 °C and 3 °C warming worlds, while the population exposure of the 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming worlds are estimated using the 2030 s, 2040 s, and 2060 s population exposures to heatwave, respectively.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased impact of heat domes on 2021-like heat extremes in North America under global warming

et al. 2023

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During summer 2021, Western North America (WNA) experienced an unprecedented heatwave with record-breaking high temperatures associated with a strong anomalous high-pressure system, i.e., a heat dome. Here, we use a flow analog method and find that the heat dome over the WNA can explain half of the magnitude of the anomalous temperature. The intensities of hot extremes associated with similar heat dome-like atmospheric circulations increase faster than background global warming in both historical change and future projection. Such relationship between hot extremes and mean temperature can be partly explained by soil moisture-atmosphere feedback. The probability of 2021-like heat extremes is projected to increase due to the background warming, the enhanced soil moisture-atmosphere feedback and the weak but still significantly increased probability of the heat dome-like circulation. The population exposure to such heat extremes will also increase. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C (3 °C) would lead to an avoided impact of 53% (89%) of the increase in population exposure to 2021-like heat extremes under the RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario.

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The Effect of Modeling Strategies on Assessments of Differential Warming Impacts of 0.5°C

Cited by 13 publications

References 60 publications

Recent Changes in Drought Events over South Asia and Their Possible Linkages with Climatic and Dynamic Factors

Recent Changes in Drought Events over South Asia and Their Possible Linkages with Climatic and Dynamic Factors

Divergent Responses of Summer Precipitation in China to 1.5°C Global Warming in Transient and Stabilized Scenarios

Increased impact of heat domes on 2021-like heat extremes in North America under global warming

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