The Effect of Migration on Latvia’s Sex and Age Composition

Abstract

The theory of Demographic Transition stipulates that the number of countries with the replacement and sub-replacement level of the total fertility rate is growing. In these conditions, population dynamics and the sex and age composition are increasingly affected by migration. The above holds true for Eastern European countries. Population decline has haunted Latvia for two and a half decades. Since 1990, the net migration rate has been negative, which contributes to depopulation. This study aims to reveal the effect of migration on the sex and age composition across Latvia and its largest cities. The authors consider hypothetical transformations in the country's age structure in 2000-2015 in the case of zero net migration. The study uses the cohort component methods and considers the actual age-specific mortality and birth rates. The analysis of the results obtained for the population of Latvia and its individual cities makes it possible to identify temporal and age/space features of migration. A comparison of the official data with net migration rates calculated for different age groups ensures a more accurate estimate of the actual volume and direction of migration flows for certain Latvian cities. The method for calculating net migration for the selected age groups, described in the article, may narrow the gaps in the current migration statistics and reveal the territorial inhomogeneity of demographic processes.

Factors affecting and determining local depopulation

“…The territorial disparities of migration have received the attention of many researchers in Latvia (e.g. Krisjane et al 2017;Zhitin et al 2018;Arbidane & Markevica 2016;Göler et al 2014;Apsite et al 2012;Krisjane & Berzins 2012) and in the European context (Poot et al 2008;Hazans 2003;Champion 2008). Migration is influenced by the income gap between economically developed and less developed regions (Harris & Todaro 1970;Greenwood & Hunt 2003;Boyle et al 1998), agricultural production efficiency and development (Camaioni et al 2019;Clark et al 1997;Chomy et al 2011;Brodzinski 2007), sustainable forestry and rural area development (Yilmaz et al 2010;Smallbone 2009) and economic benefit for individuals (Sjaastad 1962).…”

Projected changes in the number of inhabitants of Latvia in the event of the stabilization of emigration

“…The decline in population is a significant problem for Latvia, the causes and consequences of which have been brought to the attention of many researchers. Most research is devoted to studying the impact of mobility and migration on territorial disparities (Krišjāne et al 2017;Zhitin et al 2018;Arbidane and Markevica 2016;Göler et al 2014;Apsīte et al 2012;Krišjāne and Bērziņš 2012, etc.). The prediction of the population is important in planning the availability of labour (Arbidane and Markevica 2016;Kekla and Senfelde 2016, etc.…”