The effect of macroeconomic variables on the opening of antidumping measures: A robust analysis for Brazilian and Argentine economy

Abstract

This paper analyzes the influence of macroeconomic factors on the introduction of antidumping (AD) cases in Brazil and in Argentina. Since this type of research does not have large samples, the relevant variables were selected via Sala-i-Martin's (1997) test. The results, estimated using Poisson models, revealed that Brazil and Argentina are influenced by macroeconomic factors. However, the traditional (aggregated) models tend to minimize this influence on Brazil and overestimate it on Argentina. We also found that domestic and foreign income growth, exchange rate devaluation, and a reduction in domestic prices could reduce the number of AD cases in both countries. Therefore, there is evidence that these countries are using the AD law as a political tool, shifting it from its main objective of avoiding unfair trade.

Efeitos Macroeconômicos Da Defesa Comercial No Brasil

“…Notas: A -Contagem de novas investigações; B -Log do índice de produção; C -Núcleo da inflação anualizada em percentual; D -Saldo da balança comercial em milhões de reaisde 2018. Fonte: IBGE, Bacen, Bown (2016 e Decom (2017).…”