The effect of habitat choice on evolutionary rescue in subdivided populations

Czuppon, Peter; Blanquart, François; Uecker, Hildegard; Débarre, Florence

doi:10.1101/738898

Cited by 7 publications

(12 citation statements)

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“…The case of not-too-large populations is practically very important because real populations tend to have complex structures ( van Marle et al 2007 ), and competition is local, which decreases their effective size, at least on timescales shorter than those of large-scale migrations and/or mixing. Accordingly, an exciting extension would be to consider the impact of spatial structure ( Bitbol and Schwab 2014 ; Cooper et al 2015 ; Nahum et al 2015 ) on evolutionary rescue ( Uecker et al 2014 ; Czuppon et al 2019 ) in a gradually deteriorating environment. In cases where one aims to avoid rescue, our results entail that environment changes should be made as fast as possible.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapt or Perish: Evolutionary Rescue in a Gradually Deteriorating Environment

Marrec

Bitbol

2020

Genetics

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We investigate the evolutionary rescue of a microbial population in a gradually deteriorating environment, through a combination of analytical calculations and stochastic simulations. We consider a population destined for extinction in the absence of mutants, which can only survive if mutants sufficiently adapted to the new environment arise and fix. We show that mutants that appear later during the environment deterioration have a higher probability to fix. The rescue probability of the population increases with a sigmoidal shape when the product of the carrying capacity and of the mutation probability increases. Furthermore, we find that rescue becomes more likely for smaller population sizes and/or mutation probabilities if the environment degradation is slower, which illustrates the key impact of the rapidity of environment degradation on the fate of a population. We also show that our main conclusions are robust across various types of adaptive mutants, including specialist and generalist ones, as well as mutants modeling antimicrobial resistance evolution. We further express the average time of appearance of the mutants that do rescue the population and the average extinction time of those that do not. Our methods can be applied to other situations with continuously variable fitnesses and population sizes, and our analytical predictions are valid in the weak-to-moderate mutation regime.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapt or Perish: Evolutionary Rescue in a Gradually Deteriorating Environment

Marrec

Bitbol

2020

Genetics

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“…All simulations are written in the C11 programming language and use the Gnu Scientific Library. Code and data to generate the figures have been deposited in the Dryad Digital Repository (https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.rv15dv47j; Czuppon et al 2021).…”

Section: Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Habitat Choice on Evolutionary Rescue in Subdivided Populations

Czuppon

Blanquart

Uecker

et al. 2021

The American Naturalist

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Evolutionary rescue is the process by which a population, in response to an environmental change, successfully avoids extinction through adaptation. In spatially structured environments, dispersal can affect the probability of rescue. Here, we model an environment consisting of patches that degrade one after another, and we investigate the probability of rescue by a mutant adapted to the degraded habitat. We focus on the effects of dispersal and of immigration biases. We identify up to three regions delimiting the effect of dispersal on the probability of evolutionary rescue: (i) starting from low dispersal rates, the probability of rescue increases with dispersal;(ii) at intermediate dispersal rates, it decreases; and (iii) at large dispersal rates, it increases again with dispersal, except if mutants are too counterselected in not-yet-degraded patches. The probability of rescue is generally highest when mutant and wild-type individuals preferentially immigrate into patches that have already undergone environmental change. Additionally, we find that mutants that will eventually rescue the population most likely first appear in nondegraded patches. Overall, our results show that habitat choice, compared with the often-studied unbiased immigration scheme, can substantially alter the dynamics of population survival and adaptation to new environments.

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“…We take the same point of inflection θ for W and S, as it marks the midst of the environmental transition. Conversely, 72 we allow different Hill coefficients n and m, reflecting a different sensitivity of W and S individuals to environmental 73 change (see Fig. 1A).…”

Section: /29mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The case of not-too-large populations 258 is practically very important because real populations tend to have complex structures [68], and competition is 259 local, which decreases their effective size. Accordingly, an exciting extension would be to consider the impact of 260 spatial structure [67,69,70] on evolutionary rescue [71,72] in a gradually deteriorating environment. In cases where 261 one aims to avoid rescue, our results entail that environment changes should be made as fast as possible.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Adapt or perish: Evolutionary rescue in a gradually deteriorating environment

Marrec¹,

Bitbol²

2020

Preprint

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We investigate the evolutionary rescue of a microbial population in a gradually deteriorating environment, through a combination of analytical calculations and stochastic simulations. We consider a population destined for extinction in the absence of mutants, which can only survive if adaptive mutants arise and fix. We show that mutants that appear later during the environment deterioration have a higher probability to fix. We demonstrate that the rescue probability of the population increases with a sigmoidal shape when the product of the carrying capacity and of the mutation probability increases. Furthermore, we find that rescue becomes more likely for smaller population sizes and/or mutation probabilities if the environment degradation is slower, which illustrates the key impact of the rapidity of environment degradation on the fate of a population. We also show that specialist mutants are slightly more efficient at rescuing the population than generalist ones. We further express the average time of appearance of the mutants that do rescue the population and the average extinction time of those that do not. Our methods can be applied to other situations with continuously variable fitnesses and population sizes, and our analytical predictions are valid beyond the weak-mutation regime.

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The effect of habitat choice on evolutionary rescue in subdivided populations

Cited by 7 publications

References 84 publications

Adapt or Perish: Evolutionary Rescue in a Gradually Deteriorating Environment

Adapt or Perish: Evolutionary Rescue in a Gradually Deteriorating Environment

The Effect of Habitat Choice on Evolutionary Rescue in Subdivided Populations

Adapt or perish: Evolutionary rescue in a gradually deteriorating environment

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