The Effect of Disaggregate Information on the Expectation Formation of Firms

Buchheim, Lukas; Link, Sebastian

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3109315

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2024

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“…Concerning the types of information affecting expectations, investigate the impact of monetary policy shocks, and find evidence for non-linearities in this effect. Besides the response to aggregate information, Buchheim and Link (2017) present results showing that also disaggregate information is reflected in firms expectations, where aggregate and disaggregate information explain about equal shares of the variance of observed expectations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 71%

The propagation of business expectations within the European Union

Sebbesen,

Oberhofer

2024

J of Applied Econometrics

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SummaryThis paper empirically investigates the propagation of firm expectations within the European Union (EU). To this end, we combine information from EU‐wide official business surveys with input–output data. Econometrically, we model interdependencies in economic activities via input–output linkages and apply space‐time models with common factors. The resulting evidence provides indication for the existence of substantial spillover effects in expectation formation. They are transmitted both upstream and downstream the European value chain, but the latter channel matters more.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 71%