The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes, and the economy

Oliu-Barton, Miquel; Pradelski, Bary; Woloszko, Nicolas; Guetta-Jeanrenaud, Lionel; Aghion, Philippe; Artus, Patrick; Fontanet, Arnaud; Martin, Philippe; Wolff, Guntram B.

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31394-1

Cited by 54 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…This announcement led to an unprecedented demand for vaccination. 14 Vaccination rates climbed from about 64% of the population over 20 years old by 11 July 2021 (52% of all ages) to 82% on 5 September 2021 (69% of all ages). Because it targeted pay-for social activities, however, the ‘sanitary pass’ was feared to have a limited impact on vaccination inequities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

The French Covid-19 vaccination policy did not solve vaccination inequities: a nationwide study on 64.5 million people

Débarre

Lecoeur

Guimier³

et al. 2022

European Journal of Public Health

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Background To encourage Covid-19 vaccination, France introduced during the Summer 2021 a ‘Sanitary Pass’, which morphed into a ‘Vaccine Pass’ in early 2022. While the sanitary pass led to an increase in Covid-19 vaccination rates, spatial heterogeneities in vaccination rates remained. To identify potential determinants of these heterogeneities and evaluate the French sanitary and vaccine passes’ efficacies in reducing them, we used a data-driven approach on exhaustive nationwide data, gathering 141 socio-economic, political and geographic indicators. Methods We considered the association between vaccination rates and each indicator at different time points: before the sanitary pass announcement (week 2021-W27), before the sanitary pass came into force (week 2021-W31) and 1 month after (week 2021-W35) and the equivalent dates for the vaccine pass (weeks 2021-W49, 2022-W03 and 2022-W07). Results The indicators most associated with vaccination rates were the share of local income coming from unemployment benefits, overcrowded households rate, immigrants rate and vote for an ‘anti-establishment’ candidate at the 2017 Presidential election. These associations increase over time. Consequently, living in a district below the median of such indicator decreases the probability to be vaccinated by about 30% at the end of the studied period, and this probability gradually decreases by deciles of these indicators. Conclusions Our analysis reveals that factors related to poverty, immigration and trust in the government are strong determinants of vaccination rate, and that vaccination inequities tended to increase after the introduction of the French sanitary and vaccination passes.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

The French Covid-19 vaccination policy did not solve vaccination inequities: a nationwide study on 64.5 million people

Débarre

Lecoeur

Guimier³

et al. 2022

European Journal of Public Health

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“…Notification rates are likely to vary over time due to the incidence of infections, testing capacity, and existing policy regulations. Vaccination rates are also likely influenced by the policy framework and the evolution of epidemics and health conditions [ 64 , 65 ]. Individual behavior may change over time or across locations due to the so-called “lockdown fatigue” [ 66 ] or the adaptation to the varying external conditions, including vaccination status and incidence levels.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An epidemic model for SARS-CoV-2 with self-adaptive containment measures

et al. 2022

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During the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries have resorted to self-adaptive mechanisms that tailor non-pharmaceutical interventions to local epidemiological and health care indicators. These mechanisms reinforce the mutual influence between containment measures and the evolution of the epidemic. To account for such interplay, we develop an epidemiological model that embeds an algorithm mimicking the self-adaptive policy mechanism effective in Italy between November 2020 and March 2022. This extension is key to tracking the historical evolution of health outcomes and restrictions in Italy. Focusing on the epidemic wave that started in mid-2021 after the diffusion of Delta, we compare the functioning of alternative mechanisms to show how the policy framework may affect the trade-off between health outcomes and the restrictiveness of mitigation measures. Mechanisms based on the reproduction number are generally highly responsive to early signs of a surging wave but entail severe restrictions. The emerging trade-off varies considerably depending on specific conditions (e.g., vaccination coverage), with less-reactive mechanisms (e.g., those based on occupancy rates) becoming more appealing in favorable contexts.

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“…range. 13,14 In these three countries, however, passports were announced when the fraction of people without a first dose was much larger than Canada (30-35% instead of <20%). In Canada, a study reported slightly higher effects for vaccine passports in Québec (3.1 p.p.)…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of a vaccine passport on first-dose COVID-19 vaccine coverage by age and area-level social determinants in the Canadian provinces of Québec and Ontario: an interrupted time series analysis

Anato

Hamilton

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background:In Canada, all provinces implemented vaccine passports in 2021 to increase vaccine uptake and reduce transmission in non-essential indoor spaces. We evaluate the impact of vaccine passport policies on first-dose COVID-19 vaccination coverage by age, area-level income and proportion racialized.Methods:We performed interrupted time-series analyses using vaccine registry data linked to census information in Québec and Ontario (20.5 million people ≥12 years; unit of analysis: dissemination area). We fit negative binomial regressions to weekly first-dose vaccination, using a natural spline to capture pre-announcement trends, adjusting for baseline vaccination coverage (start: July 3rd; end: October 23rd Québec, November 13th Ontario). We obtain counterfactual vaccination rates and coverage, and estimated vaccine passports' impact on vaccination coverage (absolute) and new vaccinations (relative).Results:In both provinces, pre-announcement first-dose vaccination coverage was 82% (≥12 years). The announcement resulted in estimated increases in vaccination coverage of 0.9 percentage points (p.p.;95% CI: 0.4-1.2) in Québec and 0.7 p.p. (95% CI: 0.5-0.8) in Ontario. In relative terms, these increases correspond to 23% (95% CI: 10-36%) and 19% (95% CI: 15-22%) more vaccinations. The impact was larger among people aged 12-39 (1-2 p.p.). There was little variability in the absolute impact by area-level income or proportion racialized in either province.Conclusions:In the context of high baseline vaccine coverage across two provinces, the announcement of vaccine passports led to a small impact on first-dose coverage, with little impact on reducing economic and racial inequities in vaccine coverage. Findings suggest the need for other policies to further increase vaccination coverage among lower-income and more racialized neighbourhoods and communities.

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The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes, and the economy

Cited by 54 publications

References 64 publications

The French Covid-19 vaccination policy did not solve vaccination inequities: a nationwide study on 64.5 million people

The French Covid-19 vaccination policy did not solve vaccination inequities: a nationwide study on 64.5 million people

An epidemic model for SARS-CoV-2 with self-adaptive containment measures

Impact of a vaccine passport on first-dose COVID-19 vaccine coverage by age and area-level social determinants in the Canadian provinces of Québec and Ontario: an interrupted time series analysis

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