The effect of COVID‐19 lockdowns on political support: Some good news for democracy?

Abstract

Major crises can act as critical junctures or reinforce the political status quo, depending on how citizens view the performance of central institutions. We use an interrupted time series to study the political effect of the enforcement of a strict confinement policy in response to the COVID‐19 pandemic. Specifically, we take advantage of a unique representative web‐based survey that was fielded in March and April 2020 in Western Europe to compare the political support of those who took the survey right before and right after the start of the lockdown in their country. We find that lockdowns have increased vote intentions for the party of the Prime Minister/President, trust in government and satisfaction with democracy. Furthermore, we find that, while rallying individuals around current leaders and institutions, they have had no effect on traditional left–right attitudes.

Stability or change of public opinion and values during the coronavirus crisis? Exploring Dutch longitudinal panel data

“…Based on the literature, institutional trust is supposed to be quite volatile, as it reflects institutional performance. Here, we see that while more trust is given to both representative and societal institutions amidst the corona crisis, confirming the 'rally effect' (see also Bol et al 2020), most respondents actually did not change positions. However, all and all, apart from some extraordinary but plausible positions, it doesn't seem like the coronavirus crisis has shaken up values tremendously.…”

“…By comparison, institutional trust, which ought to be volatile as it is a reflection of government functioning, shows quite some concordant responses, although public opinion is more supportive of actors relevant for handling the COVID-19 pandemic. The interpretation is therefore a clear 'rally effect' (Mueller, 1973): more an emotional than a rational response to institutional functioning (see also Bol et al, 2020).…”

Between Conspiracy Beliefs, Ingroup Bias, and System Justification: How People Use Defense Strategies to Cope With the Threat of COVID-19

“…This increased system justification can also be found during COVID-19: In the wake of COVID-19, drastic political measures that restricted personal rights and freedom were introduced to battle the virus. In many countries, these measures nevertheless coincided with increased approval rates for governmental institutions (Bol et al, 2020).…”

“…For instance, increased obedience to and acceptance of the current political system and the measures implemented by the system to tackle COVID-19 can go a long way and may well be essential to lower infection and death rates. If successful, these measures might strengthen people's belief in democratic forms of government being able to effectively manage severe crisis -even if it means to temporarily cut people's personal freedoms (Bol et al, 2020). Other types of threat reactions may lead to heightened support for neighbors or people of one's own ingroup that contribute to a lasting prosocial atmosphere.…”

Malawi at the crossroads: Does the fear of contracting COVID-19 affect the propensity to vote?

“…Countries have had to navigate the balance of the risk of holding an election through voting in-person with the potential health hazard of bringing people together in a con ned space, against alternative voting methods, and the impact postponing an election would have on upholding of democratic standards (International IDEA, 2020). In West Europe, lockdown measures have been found to raise vote intentions for the party of the incumbent heads of governments, trust in government and satisfaction with democracy (Bol et al, 2020). Across Africa, several countries, including Ethiopia and Uganda, have taken the unprecedented decision to inde nitely postpone elections due to the COVID-19 pandemic (Mohamed, 2020).…”