The Effect of Containment Measures on the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Countries have implemented several containment measures to halt the spread of the 2019 coronavirus disease, but it remains unclear the extent to which these unprecedented measures have been successful. We examine this question using daily data on the number of coronavirus disease cases as well as on real-time containment measures implemented by countries. Results suggest that these measures have been very effective in flattening the “pandemic curve”, but there is significant heterogeneity across countries. Effectiveness is enhanced when measures are implemented quickly, where de facto mobility is curtailed, in countries with lower temperatures and population density, as well as in countries with a larger share of the elderly in total population and stronger health systems. We also find that easing of containment measures has resulted in an increase in the number of cases, but the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from a tightening of measures.

Stringency of the containment measures in response to COVID-19 inversely correlates with the overall disease occurrence over the epidemic wave

“…Our finding of inverse correlation between cCHI values and cumulative incidences of COVID-19 is strengthened by controlling for population density. This is in line with previously reported finding that higher population density renders social distancing more difficult and that the effect of containment measures have been stronger in countries with lower population densities 25 . Further, our finding of statistically significant and positive correlation between population density and cumulative incidence of COVID-19 across 28 European countries agrees with previous report on greater rates of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. counties with greater population densities 29 .…”

“…Early adoption and stringent containment measures were previously found to be associated with lower number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19. For instance, implementation of restrictions on gatherings and public events in New Zealand when number of daily cases was in single digits reduced the number of COVID-19 deaths by at least ten times relative to the number of deaths expected in the absence of stringent containment measures 25 . Likewise, cities in China that pre-emptively suspended intra-city public transport and banned public gatherings and entertainment venues had in average 33.3% fewer cases during the first weeks of their outbreaks, compared with cities that started control later 26 .…”

Stock Prices and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus

“…Our study relates closely to a rapidly growing literature on the dynamics of stock prices, economic activity, and policy actions during the coronavirus pandemic. Notable contributions include Alan et al 2020, Caballero and Simsek (2020), Chen and Spence (2020), Cox et al (2020), Deb et al (2020), Giglio et al (2020), Gormsen and Koijen (2020), and Landier and Thesmar (2020). 4 Relative to these papers, we contribute by documenting the predictive content of national stock prices for near-future economic activity and by providing evidence that stock prices fall sharply with the stringency of lockdown measures, conditional on a battery of controls for pandemic severity, mobility, and the generosity of income support and debt relief policies.…”

EPIDEM: A Mobile Application to Contain Coronavirus Disease 2019

“…A study showed that containment measures being implemented in different countries are very effective in flattening the pandemic curve. Further, it was highlighted that effectiveness was enhanced when the containment measures were implemented quickly [10].…”