The effect of concurrent sea‐surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic on Caribbean rainfall

Spence, Jacqueline; Taylor, Michael A.; Chen, A. Anthony

doi:10.1002/joc.1068

Cited by 55 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 21 publications

(54 reference statements)

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“…Precipitation in the Caribbean is dominated by variability on annual and decadal scales. It is most closely related to SSTs in the South Caribbean Sea, and somewhat to the tropical North Atlantic SSTs (Spence et al, 2004;Stephenson et al, 2007). Neelin et al (2006) show that the Caribbean is drier by 1-12 mm per month or 5-30% of rainfall per 100 years with a trend that is significant at 5% level.…”

Section: Observed Climatic Changes In the Caribbeanmentioning

confidence: 87%

A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean

Karmalkar¹,

Taylor²,

Campbell³

et al. 2013

Atmósfera

102

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RESUMENLos cambios climáticos observados y proyectados tienen implicaciones socioeconómicas importantes para las islas del Caribe. El objetivo de este artículo es presentar información esencial sobre el cambio climá-tico -basada en estudios previos, observaciones disponibles y simulaciones de modelos climáticos-a escalas espaciales relevantes para las islas caribeñas. Se utilizan datos del modelo general de circulación (GCM) incluidos en el Proyecto de Comparación de Modelos Acoplados fase 3 (CMIP3), así como del modelo climático regional (RCM) del Centro Hadley del Reino Unido, para aportar tanto información actual como información basada en proyecciones sobre precipitaciones y temperatura en estados insulares específicos. Se utilizan observaciones reticuladas de estaciones y datos satelitales para estudiar el clima del siglo XX y evaluar el desempeño de los modelos climáticos. Con un enfoque centrado en la precipitación, también se analizan factores como la temperatura superficial del mar, la presión al nivel del mar y los vientos que influyen en las variaciones estacionales de la precipitación. La media del ensamble del CMIP3 y el RCM captan satisfactoriamente las peculiaridades de la circulación atmosférica de gran escala en la región, pero no así el ciclo estacional bimodal característico de la precipitación. La aridez en épocas de lluvias prevista en escenarios de cambio climático en la región se ha abordado en estudios previos, pero la magnitud de la variación es muy incierta en las simulaciones tanto del GCM como del RCM. La disminución proyectada es mayor al inicio de la temporada de lluvias y suprime la sequía del medio verano en el Caribe occidental. Las simulaciones del RCM muestran avances respecto del GCM, sobre todo por sus mejores representaciones de la extensión territorial, pero su desempeño depende en gran medida de la conducción del GCM. El presente estudio destaca la necesidad de contar con observaciones de alta resolución y comparar simulaciones de modelos climáticos para entender a fondo el cambio climático y su impacto en las pequeñas islas del Caribe. ABSTRACTObserved and projected changes in climate have serious socio-economic implications for the Caribbean islands. This article attempts to present basic climate change information-based on previous studies, available observations and climate model simulations-at spatial scales relevant for islands in the Caribbean. We use the General Circulation Model (GCM) data included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and the UK Hadley Centre regional climate model (RCM) data to provide both present-day and scenario-based future information on precipitation and temperature for individual island states. Gridded station observations and satellite data are used to study 20th century climate and to assess the performance of climate models. With main focus on precipitation, we also discuss factors such as sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and winds that affect seasonal variations in precipitation. The CMIP3 ensemble me...

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Section: Observed Climatic Changes In the Caribbeanmentioning

confidence: 87%

A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean

Karmalkar¹,

Taylor²,

Campbell³

et al. 2013

Atmósfera

102

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This study differs from previous research of Caribbean rainfall in that the analysis focuses upon the MSD season alone as opposed to examination of early or late rainfall season totals or extreme precipitation values (Hastenrath, 1976;Chen and Taylor, 2002;Taylor et al, 2002;Spence et al, 2004;Ashby et al, 2005).…”

Section: W Gamble Et Almentioning

confidence: 92%

Spatial variability of the Caribbean mid-summer drought and relation to north Atlantic high circulation

2008

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Annual rainfall in the Caribbean exhibits a bimodal structure with two rainfall maxima (May-June and September-October) separated by what has been termed a mid-summer drought (MSD) (July-August). Despite general acceptance of the intensification and expansion of the North Atlantic High Pressure (NAHP) as the cause of the Caribbean MSD, it has been noted in several studies that the influence of the NAHP may not be consistent across the region. The purpose of this research is to better understand the Caribbean MSD by mapping the spatial co-variability of the Caribbean MSD and then determining the association between these spatial patterns and NAHP circulation. The spatial variability of the Caribbean MSD is identified through mapping of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) loadings of Caribbean MSD season rainfall time series. A correlation analysis was completed between monthly MSD region rainfall time series and measures of the NAHP to assess the degree of association between the spatial variability in the Caribbean MSD and NAHP circulation. The PCA identified six MSD regions, the northwestern Caribbean, the interior Caribbean, the eastern rim Caribbean, Coro Venezuela, Grantley Barbados, and a transition zone. The spatial pattern of the MSD regions suggests that the NAHP impacts the eastern Caribbean first and then progresses westward as the summer develops. In regard to the association between NAHP circulation and MSD region precipitation time series, correlation analysis indicates that overall, a modified Bermuda High Index (BHI) is a more effective tool in evaluating the association between the NAHP and Caribbean MSD as compared to the traditional indices, NAO EOF and BHI. Lagged correlations support previous findings that the winter preceding a particularly dry summer in the Caribbean is characterized by a strong pressure gradient on the southeastern flank of the NAHP; implying stronger Trade Winds, cooler sea surface temperatures, and reduced convective rainfall.

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“…The resulting daily atmospheric circulation types in Oscillation (ENSO) on the variability of regional and subregional precipitation in the Caribbean region (e.g. Enfield and Alfaro 1999;Giannini et al 2000;Chang et al 2000;Chen and Taylor 2002;Taylor et al 2002;Spence et al 2004;Wang 2001;Wang et al 2006;Charlery et al 2006;Jury et al 2007), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on sub-regional rainfall.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Daily near-surface large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns over the wider Caribbean

Chadee

Clarke

2015

Clim Dyn

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The effect of concurrent sea‐surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic on Caribbean rainfall

Cited by 55 publications

References 21 publications

A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean

A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean

Spatial variability of the Caribbean mid-summer drought and relation to north Atlantic high circulation

Daily near-surface large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns over the wider Caribbean

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