Resource-based cities had an irreplaceable role in the process of the economic miracle in China. Advancing such cities’ carbon emissions reduction is a crucial aspect of the country’s steady realisation of the dual carbon peak and neutrality strategy. The reasonable implementation of environmental regulation and the efficiency of factor marketisation allocation are the key links for resource-based cities to improve carbon emissions performance, break the resource curse and reduce carbon emissions. Based on this, this study centres on the driving relationship between environmental regulation, the efficiency of factor marketisation allocation and carbon emissions performance as the core research problem. This study takes the panel data of 116 resource-based cities in China from 2006 to 2020 as the research sample; the non-radial meta-frontier total factor carbon emissions performance index is selected as the measurement index of carbon emission performance of resource-based cities based on the applicability analysis of the model. This study explores the characteristics of regional heterogeneity and type heterogeneity of carbon emissions performance driven by environmental regulation under the moderating effect of the efficiency of factor marketisation allocation and further explores the threshold effect, aiming to clarify the driving relationship between the three. The findings reveal that the driving effect of environmental regulation intensity on carbon emissions performance exhibits a fluctuating upward trend, the effect transformed by compliance cost and innovation compensation. The efficiency of factor marketisation allocation has a double threshold superposition effect on carbon emissions performance fluctuation that is driven by environmental regulation, indicating that market and government effectiveness can operate together to improve the carbon emissions performance. Based on these results, this study proposes countermeasures and suggestions for improving carbon emissions performance using environmental regulation and the efficiency of factor marketisation allocation.
