The effect of climate change on yellow fever disease burden in Africa

Gaythorpe, Katy A. M.; Hamlet, Arran; Cibrelus, Laurence; Garske, Tini; Ferguson, Neil

doi:10.7554/elife.55619

Cited by 39 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 55 publications

(96 reference statements)

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“…Temperature suitability was calculated as in Gaythorpe et al, 2020 . The form of the temperature suitability index is given by:

where the bite rate, extrinsic incubation period, and mosquito mortality, given by

, and µ, respectively, are affected by temperature T in the following ways:

following ( Mordecai et al, 2017 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The global burden of yellow fever

Gaythorpe

Hamlet

Jean

et al. 2021

eLife

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Yellow fever (YF) is a viral, vector-borne, haemorrhagic fever endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America. The vaccine for YF is considered safe and effective, but intervention strategies need to be optimised; one of the tools for this is mathematical modelling. We refine and expand an existing modelling framework for Africa to account for transmission in South America. We fit to YF occurrence and serology data. We then estimate the subnational forces of infection for the entire endemic region. Finally, using demographic and vaccination data, we examine the impact of vaccination activities. We estimate that there were 109,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] [67,000–173,000]) severe infections and 51,000 (95% CrI [31,000–82,000]) deaths due to YF in Africa and South America in 2018. We find that mass vaccination activities in Africa reduced deaths by 47% (95% CrI [10%–77%]). This methodology allows us to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination and illustrates the need for continued vigilance and surveillance of YF.

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“…Temperature suitability was calculated as in Gaythorpe et al, 2020 . The form of the temperature suitability index is given by:

where the bite rate, extrinsic incubation period, and mosquito mortality, given by

, and µ, respectively, are affected by temperature T in the following ways:

following ( Mordecai et al, 2017 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The subscripts

, and m represent the positive rate constant, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature for each thermal response model. These were estimated within a Bayesian framework, and we retain the point estimates shown in Table 2 ( Gaythorpe et al, 2020 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The global burden of yellow fever

Gaythorpe

Hamlet

Jean

et al. 2021

eLife

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“…As temperature is a key determinant of YF transmission, 44–48 , we estimated R 0 MH and R 0 HM using a temperature-dependent model, following Gaythorpe et al . 49 and Mordecai et al . 50 (see Supplementary Materials ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 93%

Yellow fever in Asia–a risk analysis

Daniels

Gaythorpe

Imai

et al. 2021

Journal of Travel Medicine

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Background There is concern about the risk of yellow fever (YF) establishment in Asia, owing to rising numbers of urban outbreaks in endemic countries and globalisation. Following an outbreak in Angola in 2016, YF cases were introduced into China. Prior to this, YF had never been recorded in Asia, despite climatic suitability and the presence of mosquitoes. An outbreak in Asia could result in widespread fatalities and huge economic impact. Therefore, quantifying the potential risk of YF outbreaks in Asia is a public health priority. Methods Using international flight data and YF incidence estimates from 2016, we quantified the risk of YF introduction via air travel into Asia. In locations with evidence of a competent mosquito population, the potential for autochthonous YF transmission was estimated using a temperature-dependent model of the reproduction number and a branching process model assuming a negative binomial distribution. Results 25 cities across Asia were estimated to be at risk of receiving at least one YF viraemic traveller during 2016. At their average temperatures, we estimated the probability of autochthonous transmission to be below 50% in all cities, which was primarily due to the limited number of estimated introductions that year. Conclusion Despite the rise in air travel, we found low support for travel patterns between YF endemic countries and Asia resulting in autochthonous transmission during 2016. This supports the historic absence of YF in Asia and suggests it could be due to a limited number of introductions in previous years. Future increases in travel volumes or YF incidence can increase the number of introductions and the risk of autochthonous transmission. Given the high proportion of asymptomatic or mild infections and the challenges of YF surveillance, our model can be used to estimate the introduction and outbreak risk, and can provide useful information to surveillance systems.

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“…Documented rises in average temperatures and precipitation patterns are clear indications of global climate change [41]. A recent report by the 'The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change' (IPCC) suggested that if current trends continue, the global mean temperatures will likely rise by 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 [42].…”

Section: Factors Shaping Yfv Transmission Cyclesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Re-emergence of yellow fever in the neotropics — quo vadis?

Sacchetto

Drumond

Han

et al. 2020

Emerging Topics in Life Sciences

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Yellow fever virus (YFV) is the etiological agent of yellow fever (YF), an acute hemorrhagic vector-borne disease with a significant impact on public health, is endemic across tropical regions in Africa and South America. The virus is maintained in two ecologically and evolutionary distinct transmission cycles: an enzootic, sylvatic cycle, where the virus circulates between arboreal Aedes species mosquitoes and non-human primates, and a human or urban cycle, between humans and anthropophilic Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. While the urban transmission cycle has been eradicated by a highly efficacious licensed vaccine, the enzootic transmission cycle is not amenable to control interventions, leading to recurrent epizootics and spillover outbreaks into human populations. The nature of YF transmission dynamics is multifactorial and encompasses a complex system of biotic, abiotic, and anthropogenic factors rendering predictions of emergence highly speculative. The recent outbreaks in Africa and Brazil clearly remind us of the significant impact YF emergence events pose on human and animal health. The magnitude of the Brazilian outbreak and spillover in densely populated areas outside the recommended vaccination coverage areas raised the specter of human — to — human transmission and re-establishment of enzootic cycles outside the Amazon basin. Herein, we review the factors that influence the re-emergence potential of YFV in the neotropics and offer insights for a constellation of coordinated approaches to better predict and control future YF emergence events.

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The effect of climate change on yellow fever disease burden in Africa

Cited by 39 publications

References 55 publications

The global burden of yellow fever

The global burden of yellow fever

Yellow fever in Asia–a risk analysis

Re-emergence of yellow fever in the neotropics — quo vadis?

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