The effect of ambient temperature on worldwide COVID-19 cases and deaths – an epidemiological study

Sethwala, A.; Akbarally, Mohamed; Better, Nathan; Lefkovits, Jeffrey; Grigg, Leeanne; Akbarally, Huzefa

doi:10.1101/2020.05.15.20102798

Cited by 6 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…The transmission rate of COVID-19 is expressed as the daily number of infections (11,25,28), or the total number of confirmed cases (7,9,12,16,23). In other studies, the number of cases accumulated over a period of time (18,20,29), average daily cumulative rate of confirmed cases (13), or cases per 100000 (27) represent COVID-19 transmission. In addition, the virus spread is indicated as the growth rate of the confirmed cases (21,24,30), the effective reproductive number of infection (22), or the doubling time of the confirmed cases number (26).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Does Temperature Affect COVID-19 Transmission?

Kassem¹

2020

Front. Public Health

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This study utilizes the non-linear least squares method to estimate the impact of temperature on COVID-19 cases per million in forty-three countries, divided into three groups as follows: the first group is composed of thirteen countries that announced the first COVID-19 cases in January 2020, while the second and third groups contain thirteen and seventeen countries, respectively, that witnessed the pandemic for the first time in February and March of the same year. This relationship was measured after four time periods from the date of reporting the first case until April 1, April 15, May 15, and July 8, 2020. The results show an inverse relationship between COVID-19 cases per million and the temperature in the studies of the four-time periods for the three-country groups. These results were only significant statistically (p < 0.1) after 110.8, 164.8 days on average from the beginning of the pandemic in the case of “January” countries.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In some studies, the temperature is expressed as the average daily temperature (13,14,20,22,25,29), or the average temperature over a period of time (7,9,23). Others use the 14-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) of daily average temperature (28).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does Temperature Affect COVID-19 Transmission?

Kassem¹

2020

Front. Public Health

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“…Majority of studies (Zhu and Xie 2020; Shahzad et al 2020) are conducted either on China exclusively, or worldwide or on a vast geographical region (Bannister-Meyer et al 2020;Ficetola and Rubolini 2020;Sethwala et al 2020;Wu et al 2020). Besides, other works explore the USA (Gupta et al 2020) or Brazil in particular (Auler et al 2020;Prata et al 2020) Most of the studies that examine the relationship between temperature and COVID-19 spread also include varied meteorological factors and weather parameters such as diurnal temperature, absolute/relative humidity, precipitation, air quality index, wind speed, and other parameters (Table 1).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Concerning the time frame, the period covered in most of the studies pertains either to January 2020-February 2020 or January 2020-March 2020 or February 2020-March, 2020, or March 2020 to mid of April 2020. Very few studies cover the period from January 2020 to April 2020 (Sethwala et al 2020;Bashir et al 2020;Gupta et al 2020). Based on the country/ region and the time frame, studies conducted in this area rely on diverse methodologies and techniques to examine the relationship between COVID-19 cases, deaths, and meteorological factors including air pollutants.…”

Section: CC Covid-19 Confirmed Casesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Econometric analysis of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and meteorological factors in South Asia

Jain

Sharma

Goyal³

et al. 2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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The pandemic has affected almost 74 million people worldwide as of 17 December 2020. This is the first study that attempts to examine the nexus between the confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, meteorological factors, and the air pollutant namely PM2.5 in six South Asian countries, from 1 March 2020 to 30 June 2020, using the advanced econometric techniques that are robust to heterogeneity across nations. Our findings confirm (1) a strong cross-sectional dependence and significant correlation between COVID-19 cases, deaths, meteorological factors, and air pollutant; (2) long-term relationship between all the meteorological variables, air pollutant, and COVID-19 death cases; (3) temperature, air pressure, and humidity exhibit a significant impact on the COVID-19 confirmed cases, while COVID-19 confirmed cases and air pollutant PM2.5 have a statistically significant impact on the COVID-19 death cases. In this way, the conclusion that high temperature and high humidity increase the transmission of the COVID-19 infections can also be applied to the regions with greater transmission rates, where the minimum temperature is mostly over 21°C and humidity ranges around 80% for months. From the findings, it is evident that majority of the meteorological factors and air pollutant PM2.5 exhibit significant negative and positive effects on the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and death cases in the six countries under study. Air pollutant PM 2.5 provides more particle surface for the virus to stick and get transported longer distances. Hence, higher particulate pollution levels in the air increase COVID-19 transmission in these six South Asian countries. This information is vital for the government and public health authorities in formulating relevant policies. The study contributes both practically and theoretically to the concerned field of pandemic management. Highlights• To examine the nexus among the COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, meteorological factors, and the air pollutant namely PM2.5 in six South Asian countries, from 1 March 2020 to 30 June 2020, employing advanced econometric techniques • Strong cross-sectional dependence and significant correlation among COVID-19 cases, deaths, meteorological factors, and the air pollutant • Temperature air pressure and humidity exhibit a significant impact on the COVID-19 confirmed cases in the six countries • COVID-19 confirmed cases and air pollutant PM2.5 have a statistically significant impact on the COVID-19 death cases • Results assist government and public health authorities in formulating the policies for containing, mitigating, and surveillance of COVID-19 in different countries

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“…South East Asia was expected to be the region that would be most affected due to its geographical proximity to Wuhan but Tehran, Milan, Madrid, New York and London were the regions that were affected the most. (Sethwala et al ., 2020) This led to questions about the effect of environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, precipitation and ultraviolet radiation on the viability and rate of transmission of SARS-COV-2.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of temperature and precipitation on the daily new cases and daily new death in seven cities around the globe

Chaudhary¹,

K²,

Harish³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background This study was done to understand the effect of temperature and precipitation in COVID-19. Objective To study the effect of temperature and precipitation on transmission of COVID-19. To study the effect of temperature and precipitation on daily death of COVID-19. Methodology We collected 3 consecutive month data of seven cities around the world which were effected most by the COVID-19. Data included weather variables i.e temperature (average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature), precipitation, daily new cases and daily new death. Conclusion Increase in average temperature reduces daily death and increase in maximum temperature reduces transmission.

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The effect of ambient temperature on worldwide COVID-19 cases and deaths – an epidemiological study

Abstract: Background

Cited by 6 publications

References 28 publications

Does Temperature Affect COVID-19 Transmission?

Does Temperature Affect COVID-19 Transmission?

Econometric analysis of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and meteorological factors in South Asia

Effect of temperature and precipitation on the daily new cases and daily new death in seven cities around the globe

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