The economics of space debris: Estimating the costs and benefits of debris mitigation

Macauley, Molly K.

doi:10.1016/j.actaastro.2015.05.006

Cited by 32 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…While Sandler and Schulze (1981) account for collision risk when studying geostationary belt position allocation, debris accumulation and general orbital regions are not considered. Our analysis generalizes those presented in Macauley (2015); Cunningham (2015, 2018), Grzelka and Wagner (2019), and Rouillon (2020) in the physical dimensions by allowing non-stationary dynamics and runaway debris growth, and clarifies the sources of external effects by explicitly considering the economics of general forms of couplings between physical state variables. While our model is most similar to that of Rouillon (2020), we generalize the analysis by considering a planner who owns both the current stock of satellites in orbit as well as the rights to launch to that orbit in perpetuity, and by allowing debris to collide with other debris.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 61%

Open access to orbit and runaway space debris growth

Rao¹,

Rondina²

2022

Preprint

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As Earth's orbits fill with satellites and debris, debris-producing collisions between orbiting bodies become more likely. Runaway space debris growth, known as Kessler Syndrome, may render Earth's orbits unusable for centuries. We present a dynamic physico-economic model of Earth orbit use under rational expectations with endogenous collision risk and Kessler Syndrome. When satellites can be destroyed in collisions with debris and other satellites, the open-access equilibrium manifold allows for multiple steady states. When debris can collide to produce more debris, at least one steady state may be a tipping point and Kessler Syndrome can occur along equilibrium paths. We show open access is increasingly and inefficiently likely to cause Kessler Syndrome as satellites become more profitable. Calibrated simulations reveal Kessler Syndrome is expected to occur in low-Earth orbit around 2048 under recent historical sectoral growth trends, and may occur as early as 2035 if the space economy grows consistent with projections by major investment banks. These results highlight the urgent need for modeling and policy approaches which incorporate open access and positive feedbacks in debris growth.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 61%

Open access to orbit and runaway space debris growth

Rao¹,

Rondina²

2022

Preprint

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“…This is a classic tragedy of the commons problem (1,3,8,9). It can be economically efficiently addressed via incentive-based solutions, such as fees or tradable permits per year in orbit, analogous to carbon taxes or cap and trade (8,(10)(11)(12). Incentives should target objects in orbit-rather than launches-because orbiting objects are what directly imposes collision risk on other satellites (13).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Orbital-use fees could more than quadruple the value of the space industry

Rao

Burgess

Kaffine

2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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The space industry’s rapid recent growth represents the latest tragedy of the commons. Satellites launched into orbit contribute to—and risk damage from—a growing buildup of space debris and other satellites. Collision risk from this orbital congestion is costly to satellite operators. Technological and managerial solutions—such as active debris removal or end-of-life satellite deorbit guidelines—are currently being explored by regulatory authorities. However, none of these approaches address the underlying incentive problem: satellite operators do not account for costs they impose on each other via collision risk. Here, we show that an internationally harmonized orbital-use fee can correct these incentives and substantially increase the value of the space industry. We construct and analyze a coupled physical–economic model of commercial launches and debris accumulation in low-Earth orbit. Similar to carbon taxes, our model projects an optimal fee that rises at a rate of 14% per year, equal to roughly $235,000 per satellite-year in 2040. The long-run value of the satellite industry would more than quadruple by 2040—increasing from around $600 billion under business as usual to around $3 trillion. In contrast, we project that purely technological solutions are unlikely to fully address the problem of orbital congestion. Indeed, we find debris removal sometimes worsens economic damages from congestion by increasing launch incentives. In other sectors, addressing the tragedy of the commons has often been a game of catch-up with substantial social costs. The infant space industry can avert these costs before they escalate.

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“…In different values of s R , we draw the following figure. Each curve represents the variation of c P with the change of error matrix in different values of s R [10]. AS Fig.2 shows, when s R increasing, c P is also increasing, but it means that collision warning conservative.…”

Section: Results and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on the Optimal Disposal of Space Debris for Private Firms Cost Analysis and Risk Aversion

Shen¹

2017

Proceedings of the 2017 5th International Conference on Machinery, Materials and Computing Technology (ICMMCT 2017)

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Abstract. Space debris, dispersed in space densely, has become a hot global issue since collisions happened increasingly. How to develop a time-dependent model to remove debris and benefit from this project is a rare commercial opportunity for private firms. Firstly, cost analysis and planning is one of the most important components. It clearly shows the costs in different process. Also, relied on opportunity cost principle, accountant principle, science of financial management and analytical hierarchy process, the risks and benefits are analyzed in detail. It turns out the methods are stable. It can help private firms clean up space debris and enjoy profits.

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The economics of space debris: Estimating the costs and benefits of debris mitigation

Cited by 32 publications

References 4 publications

Open access to orbit and runaway space debris growth

Open access to orbit and runaway space debris growth

Orbital-use fees could more than quadruple the value of the space industry

Research on the Optimal Disposal of Space Debris for Private Firms Cost Analysis and Risk Aversion

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