The economics and demography of aging

Costa, Dora L.

doi:10.1073/pnas.0702940104

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Additionally, the number of long-term care residents will more than triple during the 50 years between 1990 and 2040 (Schneider & Guralnik, 1990 ). Lastly, there is a real question of whether old-age pension and benefit programs will remain solvent, given the growing number of individuals expected to rely on these funds (Costa, 2007 ). The recent COVID-19 pandemic now needs to be added to the mix potentially altering long-term forecasts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Tale of Two Countries: Changes to Canadian and U.S. Senior Population Projections due to the Pandemic—Implications for Health Care Planning in Canada and Other Western Countries

Nauenberg

Ng²,

Zhu

2022

Population Ageing

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To examine COVID-19 mortality demographics to determine if there will be any substantive shifts in population forecasts that will impact health and long-term care planning for seniors in both countries. Demographic data from Statistics Canada and the U.S. Census Bureau to 2060 are adjusted for COVID-19 age-group-specific mortality and then projected forward in five-year increments. These projections are then annualized using a linear imputation between each projected value. Consideration is given to the seniors 65 + , 75 + and 85 + as well as dependency ratios of each age category. Forecasts suggest that the proportion of seniors in the population will roughly plateau in 2035 at approximately 21% (U.S.) and 24% (Canada)–with another uptick observed beginning in 2050 for those aged 75 + . Adjustments due to the pandemic have had little impact on these projections suggesting that–unless there is a major shift in the demographics of pandemic-related mortality–the resource planning implications will be largely inconsequential. Investments in resources to serve seniors need not be done with the intention to repurpose these assets before they are fully depleted. While the demonstrated demographic plateau is likely to hold steady, there is uncertainty around the expected rate of decline in the health of seniors. Depending on this trajectory, community-level social supports could play a large role in lengthening the duration of senior health and independence.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Tale of Two Countries: Changes to Canadian and U.S. Senior Population Projections due to the Pandemic—Implications for Health Care Planning in Canada and Other Western Countries

Nauenberg

Ng²,

Zhu

2022

Population Ageing

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“…Healthcare now needs us to provide such knowledge-integrating and collaborating services: not as prototypes and pilots, but on a wide scale. Increasing sophistication of care, with an ageing population [2] and more and more illnesses becoming long-term conditions (such as HIV [3]), requires greater co-operation between professionals of different disciplines working in different locations, knowing each others care goals, progress made and any difficulties encountered. This needs more than sharing the record of what has been done (EHRs), but sharing each other's clinical care strategy, options and logistic constraints, to determine optimal ways of aligning efforts.…”

Section: Dipak Kalra University College Londonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Health informatics 3.0

Kalra

2011

Yearb Med Inform

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SummaryWeb 3.0 promises us smart computer services that will interact with each other and leverage knowledge about us and our immediate context to deliver prioritised and relevant information to support decisions and actions. Healthcare must take advantage of such new knowledge-integrating services, in particular to support better cooperation between professionals of different disciplines working in different locations, and to enable well-informed co-operation between clinicians and patients. To grasp the potential of Web 3.0 we will need well-harmonised semantic resources that can richly connect virtual teams and link their strategies to real-time and tailored evidence. Facts, decision logic, care pathway steps, alerts, education need to be embedded within components that can interact with multiple EHR systems and services consistently. Using Health Informatics 3.0 a patient’s current situation could be compared with the outcomes of very similar patients (from across millions) to deliver personalised care recommendations. The integration of EHRs with biomedical sciences (‘omics) research results and predictive models such as the Virtual Physiological Human could help speed up the translation of new knowledge into clinical practice. The mission, and challenge, for Health Informatics 3.0 is to enable healthy citizens, patients and professionals to collaborate within a knowledge-empowered social network in which patient specific information and personalised real-time evidence are seamlessly interwoven.

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“…The impact on society of such time-dependent increases or decreases in population size is likely to be huge: the demographic dynamics directly affects the working-age population. Depending on the size and relative size of the working-age population, public systems need to undergo drastic change (e.g., with the pension system); education and training sectors likewise have to be updated in accordance with the expected demand based on demographic predictions [ 2 – 4 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demographic supply-demand imbalance in industrial structure in the super-aged nation Japan

Kishida

Nishiura

2018

Theor Biol Med Model

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BackgroundJapan has a rapidly decreasing population, with ultra-low fertility and extremely fast aging. The rapid dynamics constitute a warning that change in the industrial structure may be unable to meet the changing pace of age-dependent demand.MethodsThe present study estimated the supply-demand imbalance by industrial sector, and we investigated the effectiveness of possible countermeasures. To quantify the demographic burden of different industry experts, we employed the dependency ratio to calculate the supply and demand of each industrial sector and occupation.ResultsWe identified an expected excess of demand in the health-care sector; the growth in that deficiency is likely to continue until 2045, when the elderly population is likely to reach a peak. By contrast, oversupply is expected in the education and construction sectors. An overall shortage of full-time workers is likely to continue until 2050, when we predict that Japan will lack 3.1–9.3 million full-time workers to satisfy the baseline demand level.ConclusionsConsidering that the imbalance is evident over different sectors, interministerial regulation of occupational choice may need to be imposed, e.g., by drastically changing student sizes in different area of higher education. Japan may have to decide to downgrade its social services and potentially consider increasing immigrant workers.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12976-018-0091-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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The economics and demography of aging

Cited by 4 publications

References 15 publications

A Tale of Two Countries: Changes to Canadian and U.S. Senior Population Projections due to the Pandemic—Implications for Health Care Planning in Canada and Other Western Countries

A Tale of Two Countries: Changes to Canadian and U.S. Senior Population Projections due to the Pandemic—Implications for Health Care Planning in Canada and Other Western Countries

Health informatics 3.0

Demographic supply-demand imbalance in industrial structure in the super-aged nation Japan

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