The economic value of genetically engineered mosquitoes as a malaria control strategy depends on local transmission rates

Abstract

This paper assesses the economic value of genetically engineered (GE) Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes as a malaria control strategy. We use an epidemiological-economic model of malaria transmission to evaluate this technology for a range of village-level transmission settings. In each setting, we evaluate public health outcomes following introduction of GE mosquitoes relative to a "status quo" baseline scenario. We also assess results both in contrast to-and in combination with-a Mass Drug Administration (MDA) strategy. We find that-in low transmission settings-the present value (PV) public health benefits of GE mosquito release are substantial, both relative to status quo dynamics and MDA. In contrast, in high transmission settings, the release of GE mosquitoes may increase steady-state infection rates. Our results indicate that there are substantial policy complementarities when GE mosquito release is combined with local MDA-the combined control strategy can lead to local eradication.