The economic value of drought information for water management under climate change: a case study in the Ebro basin

Quiroga, Sonia; Garrote, Luís; Iglesias, Ana; Fernández-Haddad, Zaira; Schlickenrieder, Jeremy; Lama, B. de; Mösso, C.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.

doi:10.5194/nhess-11-643-2011

Cited by 38 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 46 publications

(33 reference statements)

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“…The assessment and characterization of historical droughts has become essential in management of fresh water (Mishra and Singh, 2010), and application of the information obtained to the design of water management plans may compensate for the losses resulting from drought episodes (Quiroga et al, 2011). There is a general agreement about the need for research into streamflow droughts and regime types (Wilhite et al, 2007).…”

Section: Published By Copernicus Publications On Behalf Of the Europementioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study was driven by the crucial importance of drought analysis in the IP as a consequence of the economic losses caused by droughts in this area (Iglesias et al, 2007), the rising demand for water in recent years (Albiac et al, 2003;Lorenzo-Lacruz et al, 2010), the recurrence of dry episodes that increase the vulnerability of society and the economy, and the complexity of water management in the area (Quiroga et al, 2011). …”

Section: Published By Copernicus Publications On Behalf Of the Europementioning

confidence: 99%

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Streamflow droughts in the Iberian Peninsula between 1945 and 2005: spatial and temporal patterns

Lorenzo‐Lacruz¹,

Morán-Tejéda²,

Vicente‐Serrano³

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In this study we analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of streamflow droughts in the Iberian Peninsula from 1945 to 2005. Streamflow series belonging to 187 homogeneously distributed gauging stations across the study area were used to develop a standardized streamflow index (SSI), which facilitated comparison among regimes and basins, regardless of streamflow magnitudes. A principal component analysis was performed to identify homogeneous hydrological regions having common features based on the temporal evolution of streamflows. Identification of drought events was carried out using a threshold level approach. We assessed the duration and magnitude of drought episodes and the changes that occurred between two contrasting periods for each hydrological region. The results showed a trend toward increased drought severity in the majority of regions. Drought duration, magnitude and spatial coverage were found to depend mainly on climatic conditions and the water storage strategies in each basin. In some basins these strategies have altered river regimes, and in others created a high level of dependence on storage and water transfer rates.

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Section: Published By Copernicus Publications On Behalf Of the Europementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Published By Copernicus Publications On Behalf Of the Europementioning

confidence: 99%

Streamflow droughts in the Iberian Peninsula between 1945 and 2005: spatial and temporal patterns

Lorenzo‐Lacruz¹,

Morán-Tejéda²,

Vicente‐Serrano³

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Climate change projections point to a significant decrease in average runoff [44] and suggest a hotter climate, with increases in prolonged droughts [45]. The Ebro's water resources support the irrigation of about 800 000 hectares, livestock breeding, energy production and water supplies for a sparsely populated territory (32.3 inhabitants per km 2 ).…”

Section: (B) Ebro Rivermentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing hydroclimatic risks in federal rivers: a diagnostic assessment

Garrick

Stefano

Fung

et al. 2013

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Hydroclimatic risks and adaptive capacity are not distributed evenly in large river basins of federal countries, where authority is divided across national and territorial governments. Transboundary river basins are a major test of federal systems of governance because key management roles exist at all levels. This paper examines the evolution and design of interstate water allocation institutions in semi-arid federal rivers prone to drought extremes, climatic variability and intensified competition for scarce water. We conceptualize, categorize and compare federal rivers as social-ecological systems to analyse the relationship between governance arrangements and hydroclimatic risks. A diagnostic approach is used to map over 300 federal rivers and classify the hydroclimatic risks of three semi-arid federal rivers with a long history of interstate allocation tensions: the Colorado River (USA/Mexico), Ebro River (Spain) and Murray-Darling River (Australia). Case studies review the evolution and design of water allocation institutions. Three institutional design trends have emerged: adoption of proportional interstate allocation rules; emergence of multi-layered river basin governance arrangements for planning, conflict resolution and joint monitoring; and new flexibility to adjust historic allocation patterns. Proportional allocation rules apportion water between states based on a share of available water, not a fixed volume or priority. Interstate allocation reform efforts in the Colorado and Murray-Darling rivers indicate that proportional allocation rules are prevalent for upstream states, while downstream states seek reliable deliveries of fixed volumes to increase water security. River basin governance arrangements establish new venues for multilayered planning, monitoring and conflict resolution to balance self governance by users and states with basin-wide coordination. Flexibility to adjust historic allocation agreements, without risk of defection or costly court action, also provides adaptive capacity to manage climatic variability and shifting values. Future research should develop evidence about pathways to adaptive capacity in different classes of federal rivers, while acknowledging limits to transferability and the need for context-sensitive design

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“…In our approach, the marginal effects can be interpreted and give additional information about the growth patterns. This approach has been widely used for global analysis (Parry et al, 2004;Lobell et al, 2006), for European projections and more specifically in Spain (Iglesias and Quiroga, 2007;Quiroga and Iglesias, 2009;Quiroga et al, 2011). Table 4 shows the correlation matrix of variables and components, with the purpose of a better interpretation of this variable in the regression analysis.…”

Section: Management Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Gomez-Limón et al (2003) present extended discussion on the analysis of agricultural risk aversion. As in Quiroga et al (2011), we consider the incorporation of several scenarios to the model that generate several information systems with different probabilities associated to the extreme event (hydrological drought). Table 6 summarizes the variables introduced in the model and the source of information for the case study considered.…”

Section: Decision Model and Risk Aversionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Valuing drought information for irrigation farmers: potential development of a hydrological risk insurance in Spain

Quiroga¹,

Garrote²,

Fernández-Haddad³

et al. 1970

Span. j. agric. res.

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Drought events in the Mediterranean impact ecosystems and society. When meteorological drought leads to water scarcity river basin authorities and farmers are likely to be affected. The economic value of drought information and the resulting decisions that are made are of interest to these two stakeholder groups and the information providers. Here we focus on farmers' decision-making process to cope with drought consequences on crop production. The understanding of the dynamics of droughts and water scarcity is being improved continuously and new indicators are used to link science to policy actions. This paper analyses the effects of drought management plans on maize production in the Ebro river basin to compute the willingness to pay of the farmers for hypothetical hydrological risk insurance. We also compute the value of more accurate information about drought probability that would allow for better decision-making. If runoff is reduced, farmers can consider contracting hydrological risk insurance in order eliminate the risk of water scarcity. Alternately farmers can take the risk of water reduction maintaining their activities and accept a reduction of water supply reliability. The methodology and results presented are relevant to analyse climate change since drought events in the Mediterranean are likely to increase in frequency, duration and intensity. This information is also relevant for the revision of River Basin Management Plans of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) within the context of climate change.Additional key words: economic value of drought information; farmers' decission making process; hydrological risk insurance; maize production in the Ebro basin; meteorological drought. ResumenValoración económica de la información sobre sequía para los regantes: evaluación potential de un seguro de sequía hidrológica en España La sequía en el Mediterráneo tiene gran impacto en los ecosistemas y la sociedad. Si la sequía meteorológica conduce a la escasez de agua, las autoridades de cuencas y los agricultores se verán afectados. El valor económico de la información sobre sequía es de gran interés para ambos grupos y para los proveedores de información. Este estudio se centra en el proceso de toma de decisiones de los agricultores para enfrentar las consecuencias de ésta sobre la producción agrícola. La comprensión de la dinámica de la escasez de agua mejora continuamente, usándose nuevos indicadores para vincular la ciencia y las acciones de política. Este artículo analiza los efectos de la gestión de sequía en la producción de maíz en la cuenca del Ebro, calculando la disposición a pagar de los agricultores por un seguro hipotético contra el riesgo hidrológico. También se calcula el valor de información sobre la probabilidad de sequía para tomar mejores decisiones. Si se reduce la escorrentía, los agricultores pueden considerar la contratación de un seguro con el fin de eliminar el riesgo hidrológico. Alternativamente, pueden tomar el riesgo de una reducción del abastecimiento de agua, aceptand...

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The economic value of drought information for water management under climate change: a case study in the Ebro basin

Cited by 38 publications

References 46 publications

Streamflow droughts in the Iberian Peninsula between 1945 and 2005: spatial and temporal patterns

Streamflow droughts in the Iberian Peninsula between 1945 and 2005: spatial and temporal patterns

Managing hydroclimatic risks in federal rivers: a diagnostic assessment

Valuing drought information for irrigation farmers: potential development of a hydrological risk insurance in Spain

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