The economic importance of rare earth elements volatility forecasts

Proelss, Juliane; Schweizer, Denis; Seiler, Volker

doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2019.01.010

Cited by 25 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 95 publications

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“…We demonstrated that superdiffusive FBM with large H values is outside the large-deviation bound. Superdiffusive FBM applied in mathematical finance are indeed in this range of H values [58][59][60], and our large-deviation tool is therefore well suited for the analysis of such processes. We also showed that the large-deviation tool is able to uncover subtle correlations in the data, similarly to ARFIMA analyses applied mainly in mathematical finance and time series analysis.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Leveraging large-deviation statistics to decipher the stochastic properties of measured trajectories

Thapa,

Wyłomańska,

Sikora

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Extensive time-series encoding the position of particles such as viruses, vesicles, or individual proteins are routinely garnered in single-particle tracking experiments or supercomputing studies. They contain vital clues on how viruses spread or drugs may be delivered in biological cells. Similar time-series are being recorded of stock values in financial markets and of climate data. Such timeseries are most typically evaluated in terms of time-average mean-squared displacements, which remain random variables for finite measurement times. Their statistical properties are different for different physical stochastic processes, thus allowing us to extract valuable information on the stochastic process itself. To exploit the full potential of the statistical information encoded in measured time-series we here propose an easy-to-implement and computationally inexpensive new methodology, based on deviations of the time-averaged mean-squared displacement from its ensemble average counterpart. Specifically, we use the upper bound of these deviations for Brownian motion to check the applicability of this approach to simulated and real data sets. By comparing the probability of deviations for different data sets, we demonstrate how the theoretical bound for Brownian motion reveals additional information about observed stochastic processes. We apply the large-deviation method to data sets of tracer beads tracked in aqueous solution, tracer beads measured in mucin hydrogels, and of geographic surface temperature anomalies. Our analysis shows how the large-deviation properties can be efficiently used as a simple yet effective routine test to reject the Brownian motion hypothesis and unveil crucial information on statistical properties such as ergodicity breaking and short-time correlations. III. DATA SETS FOR LARGE-DEVIATION ANALYSISWe here describe the data used in our analysis below. These contain both BM and non-Brownian processes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Leveraging large-deviation statistics to decipher the stochastic properties of measured trajectories

Thapa,

Wyłomańska,

Sikora

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…Another aspect that should be considered is the volatility price of metals and rare earths, as vanadium, zinc, and cerio. [35] In other words, significant price variations can have a strong effect of the final price of the batteries making them unfeasible from an economic point of view. Therefore, risk management strategies should also be analyzed for coping with pricing risk.…”

Section: Preliminary Economic Surveymentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental and Preliminary Cost Assessments of Redox Flow Batteries for Renewable Energy Storage

et al. 2019

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The sustainable use of energy is one of the main challenges currently. The increase in the use of renewable energies must also be accompanied by storage systems that respect the environment or are as harmless as possible. In this work, life‐cycle assessment (LCA) “from cradle to gate” and a preliminary cost assessment of two types of redox flow batteries, such as vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) and zinc/cerium batteries (ZCBs), are studied. Ecoinvent 3.3 data base, AWARE, and CML Baseline v3.04 methodologies are used to quantify the environmental burden into 12 midpoint impact categories (water footprint, global warming 100a, abiotic depletion, abiotic depletion [fossil fuel], ozone layer depletion, human toxicity, fresh water ecotoxicity, terrestrial ecotoxicity, marine ecotoxicity, photochemical oxidation, acidification, and eutrophication). All impact categories are higher in ZCBs than in VRFBs except water footprint and acidification. These midpoint impacts are also compared with conventional batteries (lithium) and nonconventional ones (NaNiCl). VRFBs have the lowest environmental impact and a longer life considering the reuse of vanadium electrolytes. Regarding the cost analysis, the electrolyte is the most expensive component of both batteries.

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“…Regarding REEs, there are many challenges associated with their extraction and processing and thus their global availability. These include (i) their geological distribution, as it is known that REE-containing minerals rarely occur in concentrated forms, thus making their exploitation difficult and (ii) their presence with uranium or thorium decay chains, which makes their processing more challenging and expensive [56][57][58]. As a result, urban mining will be a pillar of the circular economy in the near future and is anticipated to have strong economic (generating profit through the development and application of innovative technologies), and environmental (reducing environmental impacts) benefits [59].…”

Section: Mine Of the Futurementioning

confidence: 99%

Social License to Operate in Mining: Present Views and Future Trends

Komnitsas

2020

Resources

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The social license to operate (SLO) is an informal social contract that aims to bridge the gap among the views of the most important stakeholders involved in mining activities. The novelty of this paper lies in the fact that it discusses the current situation and the future prospects of granting a SLO, mainly at the European Union (EU) level, by considering the mine of the future, in terms of deep sea and landfill mining, and the criticality of raw materials that are required by high tech products as well as by emerging and green technologies. Also, it highlights the factors that may affect the views of all involved stakeholders, focusing on the joint efforts that are required by the industry and the society as well as on the main technological, social, political and legal issues which are relevant to the process. It is believed that if trust is developed between the involved stakeholders the SLO may prove an important tool in future mining in order to safeguard the supply of raw materials, minimize the environmental footprint and improve the quality of life in the affected regions. Finally, a conceptual flowsheet involving the main steps that may be followed for granting a SLO is proposed.

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The economic importance of rare earth elements volatility forecasts

Cited by 25 publications

References 95 publications

Leveraging large-deviation statistics to decipher the stochastic properties of measured trajectories

Leveraging large-deviation statistics to decipher the stochastic properties of measured trajectories

Environmental and Preliminary Cost Assessments of Redox Flow Batteries for Renewable Energy Storage

Social License to Operate in Mining: Present Views and Future Trends

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