The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data

Chetty, Raj; Friedman, John N.; Hendren, Nathaniel; Stepner, Michael

doi:10.3386/w27431

Cited by 632 publications

(635 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The result that weights matter in our data differs fromChetty et al (2020) who find that the private sector data samples they work with track relevant national benchmarks without reweighting.…”

contrasting

confidence: 87%

“…The data allow us to produce a variety of metrics to measure high-frequency labor market changes 2 Our paper complements many recent papers which use a variety of different data sources to track labor market outcomes during the recent recession. A sampling of those papers includes: Bartik et al (2020a), Bartik et al (2020b) Barrero et al (2020), Bick and Blandin (2020), Brynjolfsson et al (2020), Chetty et al (2020), Dingel and Neiman (2020), Coibion et al (2020), Kahn et al (2020) and Kurmann et al (2020). As discussed above, our ADP data have advantages over the data used in many of these other papers in that they are nationally representative, have large sample sizes, track both employment and wages, and allow for the joint matching of individual workers to individual businesses.…”

Section: Section I Data and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

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The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession

Cajner¹,

Crane²,

Decker³

et al. 2020

237

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We thank Sinem Buber, Mita Goldar and Matthew Levin from ADP for their support on the project. We also thank Steve Davis, Jan Eberly and Jonathan Parker for comments on prior drafts. As part of the University of Chicago data use contract, ADP reviewed the paper prior to distribution with the sole focus of making sure that the paper did not release information that would compromise the privacy of their clients or reveal proprietary information about the ADP business model. The views expressed in the paper are the authors' and do not necessarily reflect the views of ADP or the National Bureau of Economic Research. Additionally, the analysis and conclusions set forth here are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors. At least one co-author has disclosed a financial relationship of potential relevance for this research. Further information is available online at http://www.nber.org/papers/w27159.ack NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

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confidence: 87%

Section: Section I Data and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession

Cajner¹,

Crane²,

Decker³

et al. 2020

237

210

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“…We measure the magnitude of the economic shock by county using data from the Opportunity Insights Track the Recovery web site (Chetty, Friedman, Hendren and Stepner, 2020). We focus on two main measures.…”

Section: Payroll Protection Program and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our first question is whether FinTech PPP loans flowed unconditionally to the areas that needed it most in both periods, and PPP lending is different for traditional banks versus online banks nonbank financial institutions. To measure which areas were most in need of PPP loans, we use county-level variables collected byChetty et al (2020), the increase in unemployment claims rate (between the months of March and April) and the average COVID-19 case rate. Our other variables are measured at the ZIP code level.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Does Fintech Substitute for Banks? Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program

Erel

Liebersohn

2020

SSRN Journal

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We would like to thank René Stulz, Tejaswi Velayudhan, Daniel Green, Greg Howard, Victor Lyonnet for very helpful comments. Thanks to May Zhu for excellent research assistance. All errors are our own. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

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Job Flows Into and Out of Health Care Before and After the COVID-19 Pandemic

Shen,

Eddelbuettel,

Eisenberg

2024

JAMA Health Forum

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ImportanceAnecdotal evidence suggests that health care employers have faced increased difficulty recruiting and retaining staff in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Empirical research is needed to understand the magnitude and persistence of these changes, and whether they have disproportionate implications for certain types of workers or regions of the country.ObjectiveTo quantify the number of workers exiting from and entering into the health care workforce before and after the pandemic and to examine variations over time and across states and worker demographics.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis cohort study used US Census Bureau state unemployment insurance data on job-to-job flows in the continental US to construct state-level quarterly exit and entry rates for the health care industry from January 2018 through December 2021 (Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee were omitted due to missing data). An event study design was used to compute quarterly mean adjusted rates of job exit from and entry into the health care sector as defined by the North American Industry Classification System. Data were examined from January to June 2023.ExposureThe COVID-19 pandemic.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe main outcomes were the mean adjusted health care worker exit and entry rates in each quarter by state and by worker demographics (age, gender, race and ethnicity, and education level).ResultsIn quarter 1 of 2020, there were approximately 18.8 million people (14.6 million females [77.6%]) working in the health care sector in our sample. The exit rate for health care workers increased at the onset of the pandemic, from a baseline quarterly mean of 5.9 percentage points in 2018 to 8.0 (95% CI, 7.7-8.3) percentage points in quarter 1 of 2020. Exit rates remained higher than baseline levels through quarter 4 of 2021, when the health care exit rate was 7.7 (95% CI, 7.4-7.9) percentage points higher than the 2018 baseline. In quarter 1 of 2020, the increase in health care worker exit rates was dominated by an increase in workers exiting to nonemployment (78% increase compared with baseline); in contrast, by quarter 4 of 2021, the exit rate was dominated by workers exiting to employment in non–health care sectors (38% increase compared with baseline). Entry rates into health care also increased in the postpandemic period, from 6.2 percentage points at baseline to 7.7 percentage points (95% CI, 7.4-7.9 percentage points) in the last quarter of 2021, suggesting increased turnover of health care staff. Compared with prepandemic job flows, the share of workers exiting health care after the pandemic who were female was disproportionately larger, and the shares of workers entering health care who were female or Black was disproportionately smaller.Conclusions and RelevanceResults of this cohort study suggest a substantial and persistent increase in health care workforce turnover after the pandemic, which may have long-lasting implications for workers’ willingness to remain in health care jobs. Policymakers and health care organizations may need to act to prevent further losses of experienced staff.

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The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using Private Sector Data

Abstract: NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

Cited by 632 publications

References 21 publications

The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession

The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession

Does Fintech Substitute for Banks? Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program

Job Flows Into and Out of Health Care Before and After the COVID-19 Pandemic

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