The economic impact of terrorism: A new model and its application to Pakistan

Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz; Park, Donghyun; Kim, Jungsuk; Khan, Alam

doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2015.08.004

Cited by 47 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…The findings also suggest that political instability is associated with an increase in terrorism (Kingma et al, ; Malik & Zaman, ; Nasir et al, ; Piazza, ). In contrast to Estrada et al (), this study reveals that there is a positive and significant relationship between higher school enrollment rates and an increase in terrorism (Nasir et al, ; Oyefusi, ; Russell & Miller, ). The extent of the informal sector was also shown to relate to an increase in terrorism.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 93%

“…Previous research suggests various determinants/factors which may relate to terrorism in both developed and developing countries. However, the theoretical and empirical literature, in the past decade in particular, is inconclusive about the relationship between socioeconomic indicators and terrorism (Market impact: Governance: Asongu & Nwachukwu, ; Halkos et al, ; Orbaneja et al, ; Economic impact: Abadie & Gardeazabal, ; Blomberg et al, ; Estrada et al, ; Ismail & Amjad, ; Malik & Zaman, ; Shahbaz, ; Shahbaz et al, ). A number of socioeconomic indicators associated with terrorism in the literature are discussed in this section.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The impact of terrorism on an economy can best be explained by rational choice theory (Estrada et al, ). Zimmermann (:S157) argues that:

In terms of Weber’s distinction, deterrence can only be directed against purposive rational actions where the goal is not to be achieved at any price (value‐rational action) but with rational calculation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Socioeconomic Determinants of Terrorism

Nurunnabi

Sghaier

2018

Digest Mid East Studies

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The term “terrorism” is notoriously difficult to define, but terrorism has become a global concern over the last two decades. The findings of prior research on the social, political, and economic determinants of terrorism are mixed and inconclusive. Accordingly, this study investigates the relationship between socioeconomic indicators and terrorism in Tunisia for the period 1979–2015. The error correction model has been used to determine the stability of any long‐term relationship. Using autoregressive distributed lag bound testing, the findings reveal that the unemployment rate, political instability, the informal sector and higher school enrollment rates positively and significantly affect terrorism. However, gross domestic product per capita and foreign direct investment have a negative and significant impact on terrorism. Interestingly, the poverty rate has no relationship to terrorism. Policy implications and future research are also discussed.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 93%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The impact of terrorism on an economy can best be explained by rational choice theory (Estrada et al, ). Zimmermann (:S157) argues that:

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Socioeconomic Determinants of Terrorism

Nurunnabi

Sghaier

2018

Digest Mid East Studies

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“…Taking Consideration of hypotheses, the study failed to reject the null hypothesis (H0) because it is statistically insignificant at 5% level of significance, though there is a correlation between terrorism and macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, it is noticeable that, normally, increasing terrorism decreases import of crude oil and natural gas (Estrada, et al, 2015), but, here, a positive correlation exist between them, means rising terrorism increases import of crude oil and natural gas in Turkey. Actually it is a good sign for Turkey's economy but, on the other hand, it creates a dispute about their economic policies which generates a platform for questioning.…”

Section: Conclusion and Recommendationmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…Finally, the import of crude oil and natural gas has a negative relation with terrorism because of country's instability which increases the bargaining power of supplier. Normally, terrorism restricts import demand (Estrada, et al, 2015) There are some studies which have made analysis about terrorism, economic development as well as macroeconomic variables. Among these, a handful studies have focused on the relationship between macroeconomic variables-especially import of crude oil and natural gas-and terrorism.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Relationship Between Terrorism and Macroeconomic Variables: Especially Import of Crude Oil and Natural Gas in Turkey

Dural¹,

Jahangir²

2017

Ulakbilge

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The main purpose of this study is to observe the interaction between terrorism and energy-crude oil and natural gas import-in Turkey. It also observes the linkage between terrorism and other macroeconomic variables: exchange rate, gross domestic product, foreign direct investment, interest rate and inflation rate. Here, the study considers a time series data of macroeconomic variables' growth rate which is calculated by using natural log formula. Besides, it runs correlation and scatterplot to find out the connection between variables using terrorism as an independent and macroeconomic factors as dependent variables. The study result shows that terrorism is positively correlated with the import of crude oil and natural gas though it is statistically insignificant. In addition, it also demonstrates the correlation between terrorism and other macroeconomic variables. Needless to say, these results will help the foreign and domestic investors to get an idea about the relationship between terrorism and macroeconomic variables in Turkey during 2003 to 2015. However, it is noticeable that consideration of refugee crisis and neighbor countries' political instability could have changed the findings of the study. Keywords ÖZBu çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye'de terörizm ile enerji-ham petrol ve doğal gaz ithalatının etkileşimini gözlemlemektir. Çalışma aynı zamanda terörizm ile diğer makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki bağlantıyı da gözlemlemeyi amaçlamaktadır: döviz kuru, gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla, doğrudan yabancı yatırım, faiz oranı ve enflasyon oranı. Burada, çalışma, doğal log formülü kullanılarak hesaplanan makroekonomik değişkenlerin büyüme hızının bir zaman serisi verisini değerlendirmektedir. Ayrıca terörizmi bağımsız değişken ve makroekonomik faktörleri bağımlı değişkenler olarak kullanarak ikisi arasındaki bağlantıyı bulmak için korelasyon ve scatterplot kullanmaktadır. Çalışma sonucunda, terörizmin ham petrol ve doğal gaz ithalatıyla pozitif yönde ilişkili olduğu, ancak istatistiksel olarak önemsiz olduğu görülmektedir. İlave olarak terörizm ile diğer makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki korelasyonu da göstermektedir. Şüphesiz bu sonuçlar, yerli ve yabancı yatırımcıların Türkiye'de 2003 ve 2015 yılları arasında terörizm ile makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişki hakkında fikir sahibi olmalarına yardımcı olacaktır. Ancak mülteci krizinin ve komşu ülkelerin siyasi istikrarsızlığının dikkate alınmasının, araştırmanın bulgularını değiştirmiş-etkilemiş olabileceği farkedilebilir.

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