The economic drivers of political time

Abstract

Skowronek's theory of “political time” posits that presidential success follows historical cycles, but it does not specify a unique causal mechanism. Each president merely reacts to their predecessor or to historical circumstance. Scholars of “political time” also suggest that the power of history may be diminishing over time. This article uses theory and evidence to address the causality issue in both instances. First, it shows that economic crises drive political time forward. Second, it argues that recent political commitments to a combination of New Deal and Reaganite ideas and policies have been used to attenuate economic crises. Hence, it is not that the power of history has waned. Rather, the causal nature of political time has been under‐specified.