The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks

Çakmaklı, Cem; Demiralp, Selva; Kalemli‐Özcan, Ṣebnem; Yeşiltaş, Sevcan; Yıldırım, Muhammed A.

doi:10.3386/w28395

Cited by 72 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…High-income countries, representing 16% of the world's population, purchased more than half of all COVID-19 vaccine doses 31 available to date, aside the COVAX agreement. This will extend the time frame of the pandemic and the economical burden worldwide 13,32,33 . Unless a worldwide vaccine allocation strategy based on health and epidemiological needs is implemented, humanity will not be able to achieve global herd immunity soon enough and will suffer the consequences of COVID-19 for much longer.…”

Section: Final Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach

Barreiro

Ventura

Govezensky³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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In a world being hit by waves of COVID-19, vaccination is a light on the horizon. However, the roll-out of vaccination strategies and their influence on the pandemic are still open problems. In order to compare the effect of various strategies proposed by the World Health Organization and other authorities, a previously developed SEIRS stochastic model of geographical spreading of the virus is extended by adding a compartment for vaccinated people. The parameters of the model were fitted to describe the pandemic evolution in Argentina, Mexico and Spain to analyze the effect of the proposed vaccination strategies. The mobility parameters allow to simulate different social behaviors (e.g. lock-down interventions). Schemes in which vaccines are applied homogeneously in all the country, or limited to the most densely-populated areas, are simulated and compared. The second strategy is found to be more effective. Moreover, under the current global shortage of vaccines, it should be remarked that immunization is enhanced when mobility is reduced. Additionally, repetition of vaccination campaigns should be timed considering the immunity lapse of the vaccinated (and recovered) people. Finally, the model is extended to include the effect of isolation of detected positive cases, shown to be important to reduce infections.

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Section: Final Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategies for COVID-19 vaccination under a shortage scenario: a geo-stochastic modelling approach

Barreiro

Ventura

Govezensky³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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show abstract

“…Following simple, evidence based guidance at a construction site for the Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup had substantial benefits for health and productivity 4142. As illustrated by the covid-19 pandemic, the costs of poorly managed outbreaks, lockdowns, and economic stimulus packages go far beyond the costs of effective public health responses 43…”

Section: Investing In Health and Social Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Health and social needs of migrant construction workers for big sporting events

Onarheim

Phua

Babar

et al. 2021

BMJ

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“…With only vaccination of those susceptible in advanced economies, the economic toll may mount to trillions more, much of it falling back on these high-income countries. 5 The surest path out of this pandemic is also the one toward greater equity. Admittedly though, the decisions made by countries to date, the bilateral deals struck, and the lack of global solidarity make this road to equity path dependent.…”

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confidence: 99%