The economic and food security implications of climate change in mali

Abstract

The study focuses on economic and food security implications of projected climate change on Malian agriculture sector. Climate change projections made by two global circulation models are considered. The analysis focuses on the effects on crops, forages, and livestock and the resultant effects on sectoral economics and risk of hunger in Mali. Results show that under climate change, crop yield changes are in the range of minus 17% to plus 6% at national level. Simultaneously, forage yields fall by 5 to 36% and livestock animal weights are reduced by 14 to 16%. The resultant economic losses range between 70 to $142 million, with producers gaining, but consumers losing. The percentage of population found to be at risk of hunger rises from a current estimate of 34% to an after climate change level of 64% to 72%. A number of policy and land management strategies can be employed to mitigate the effects of climate change. In particular, we investigate the development of heat resistant cultivars, the adoption of existing improved cultivars, migration of cropping pattern, and expansion of cropland finding that they effectively reduce climate change impacts lowering the risk of hunger to as low as 28%.

Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico

“…Cropping patterns in agricultural producing areas are primarily determined by regional climatic conditions. Farmers would respond to climate change inter alia by altering the crop mixture they grow, which would reduce some climate-change-related losses (Butt et al 2005). For the region, more than 60 % of the territory comprised agricultural activities, highlighting the importance of this activity.…”

Land Use and Climate Change

“…Farmers in developing countries have been found to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Butt et al (2005) combine biophysical and economic models to investigate implications of climate change in Mali. They find that, under climate change, crop farmers are severely affected and overall food insecurity almost doubles.…”

“…Seo et al (2009) find that a hot and dry climate results in a greater incidence of livestock compared 8 with crop production. Butt et al (2005) indicate that, under climate change, livestock weights are projected to decrease by 14-16%.…”

“…Studies also have shown that cropping system management adjustments can be used to adapt (Adams, McCarl, and Mearns 2003;Easterling, Chhetri, and Niu 2003;Butt et al 2005;Travasso et al 2006;Challinor et al 2007). Reilly et al (2002) show considerable potential to varietal adaptation but Schlenker and Roberts (2009) suggest limited historical adaptation of seed varieties or management practices to warmer temperatures.…”

“…Adaptation has been found to improve welfare so it is therefore very likely that people will autonomously adapt (Butt et al 2005;Mendelsohn and Dinar 2009). However, most impacts due to climate change are projected to continue to increase for some time (IPCC 2007b).…”