The ECESIS Economic-Demographic Model of the United States

Input‐output and Economic Base Multipliers: Looking Backward and Forward*

“…Although this problem can be dealt with by disaggregating the consumption function, such disaggregation probably reflects the differences in the composition of the labor force, household dependency ratios, work status, migration responses, and other labor market effects. In spite of the research mentioned above, there remains substantial scope for the further integration of labor markets into input-output models, ranging from the inclusion of occupational-industry matrices to the addition of disaggregated labor migration models into interregional inputoutput models.12 Demoeconomic models offer one promising, systematic approach to achieving this integration [Batey (1985); Batey and Madden (1981); Beaumont et al (1985); Gordon and Ledent (1981); ; Isserman et al (1985); Joun and Conway (1983); Ledent (1978); Ledent and Gordon (1981); Luptacik and Schmoranz (1980); Madden and Batey (1980, 1983, 198411. For example, Batey's (1985 synthesis combines intensive and extensive income growth (i.e., distinguishes the consumption behavior of residents and in-migrants), different propensities to consume, explicit employment-production functions, a labor supply equation and a consumption vector for the unemployed to generate, inter alia, endogenous unemployment.…”

United States Immigration Policy and the Industrial Heartland: Laws, Origins, Settlement Patterns and Economic Consequences

“…Drawing on Beaumont et al (1986), and implemented only as temporary changes to make possible this research, the new specifications were so successful that they have been incorporated permanently into NRIES II . Output equations other than manufacturing now include population as an explanatory variable to measure the demand for services .…”

A survey of census bureau population projection methods

“…The project, called ECESIS, combines two traditions, the demographic and economic (Beaumont et al, 1983). Unlike other efforts at such blending where the economic model drives the demographic model, ECESIS is designed to build in a set of feedback mechanisms so that the economic model informs the demographic and the demographic model informs the economic.…”