The ebb and flow of official calls in water polo

Abstract

Defensive fouls play an important role in elite men's water polo generating over half of all goals. Despite their importance, little is known about the relationship between foul calling patterns and other game-state variables in the sport. Here we apply a sequence of hierarchical mixed logistic regression models on data from major tournaments in 2012-2014 to study such relationships and find a number of significant biases in foul calling rates. Offensive teams who are winning/tied are about 31% less likely to draw a defensive foul and 32% more likely to get called for an offensive foul than teams who are losing. The magnitude of losing team bias tends to increase over the course of a game, but is not significantly affected by the size of the lead. A team's odds of getting called for a foul also increase by about 10% for each consecutive goal scored or foul called in their favor. These biases persist across different offensive and defensive tactical decisions and tournaments suggesting that they are widespread and that it is referees, rather than teams, who are responsible for a lack of independence in water polo foul calling rates.

Water Polo Offensive Methods after the 2018 FINA Rules Update

“…The increase in penalties was another effect of the rule changes reported [ 21 ], but, in the current research, they mainly occurred in Croatia’s team. However, results are still in agreement with a study that reported that penalties and power-plays together account for about 56% of goals in elite matches [ 39 ], meaning that more than half of the goals come from disciplinary sanctions for serious fouls. Thus, it seems that body contact or wrestling bouts between opponents within the game [ 8 , 22 , 26 ] still remain at a high rate.…”

A Decade of Referee Bias against College Football Programs from Historically Black Colleges and Universities

“…Additional sports have attracted researchers into examining a possible correlation between referee bias and in game trends. For example, it was within the sport of Olympic water polo that Graham and Mayberry (2016) reported that offensive teams who were either tied or winning were 31% less likely to have a defensive foul called in their favor. In addition, Graham and Mayberry (2016) reported that offensive teams were "about 32% more likely to get an offensive foul called against them than losing teams" (p. 70).…”

“…For example, it was within the sport of Olympic water polo that Graham and Mayberry (2016) reported that offensive teams who were either tied or winning were 31% less likely to have a defensive foul called in their favor. In addition, Graham and Mayberry (2016) reported that offensive teams were "about 32% more likely to get an offensive foul called against them than losing teams" (p. 70). Scholarship that analyzed referee bias and game trends in hockey by Abrevaya and McCulloch (2014) suggested that the score of the game, the time of the game, and the number of referees could all influence which hockey team was the next to be penalized.…”

Production functions of NCAA men and women water polo matches

“…The relevant measure was how efficient the team was at converting the opportunities into goals. In a follow-up analysis,Graham and Mayberry (2016) concluded that officials calling exclusion fouls during water polo games revealed bias: it was more likely that the losing team would have more player advantage opportunities.The results here are consistent with these previous findings. DEXCLUSION measures the differences of the player advantage opportunities rather than the efficiency of a player advantage opportunity.…”