The dynamics of vulnerability: why adapting to climate variability will not always prepare us for climate change

Dilling, Lisa; Daly, Meaghan; Travis, William R.; Wilhelmi, Olga; Klein, Roberta

doi:10.1002/wcc.341

Cited by 116 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 82 publications

(96 reference statements)

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“…Klein et al (2014) discuss various forms of transformation, but take an underlying approach that sees transformation as a mechanism for managing situations of environmental or ecosystem change that exceed the ability of "human actors and/or natural systems" to manage through incremental adjustments. Some authors argue that approaches to adaptation that merely make adjustments to current development practices risk extending unsustainable practices in a changing environmental context in which we can no longer assume, for example, the continuation of existing patterns of seasonality, extreme events, coastal configurations, and access to water and other resources (Park et al, 2012;Dilling et al, 2015). Approaches that draw from systems ecology see transformability (the ability to undergo change) as a positive characteristic of resilient systems (Folke et al, 2010).…”

Section: Background To Terms: What's In a Word?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Transformation, adaptation and development: relating concepts to practice

et al. 2017

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In recent years there has been a growing number of academic reviews discussing the theme of transformation and its association with adaptation to climate change. On the one hand this has stimulated exchange of ideas and perspectives on the parameters of transformation, but it has also given rise to confusion in terms of identifying what constitutes a non-incremental form of adaptation on the ground. What this article aims to do instead is help researchers and practitioners relate different interpretations of transformation to practice by proposing a typological framework for categorising forms of change that focuses on mechanisms and objectives. It then discusses how these categorisations link to the broader conceptions and critiques noted above, with the idea that this will enable those who seek to analyse or plan adaptation to better analyse what types of action are potentially constitutive of transformation. In doing so, it should equally assist in the identification and specification of critical questions that need to be asked of such activity in relation to issues of sustainability and equity.

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Section: Background To Terms: What's In a Word?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Transformation, adaptation and development: relating concepts to practice

et al. 2017

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“…Climate change (adaptation) documents from a small number of the LAs consider analyses of current local climate a sufficient foundation for the development of an adaptation strategy. However, too narrow a focus on past and current vulnerability and exposure may not prepare German LAs sufficiently to cope with future climate change (Dilling et al 2015). The use of climate function and recommendation maps form an integral part of planning across LAs: 'as an evaluation tool, it is a very important instrument here in the municipality.…”

Section: Germanymentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation planning and the use of climate change projections in local government in England and Germany

et al. 2016

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Planning for adaptation to climate change is often regarded to be a local imperative and considered to be more effective if grounded on a solid evidence base and recognisant of relevant climate projections. Research has already documented some of the challenges of making climate information usable in decision-making but has not yet sufficiently reflected on the role of the wider institutional and regulatory context. This article examines the impact of the external institutional context on the use and usability of climate projections in local government through an analysis of 44 planning and climate change (adaptation) documents and 54 semi-structured interviews with planners in England and Germany conducted between July 2013 and May 2014. We show that there is little demand for climate projections in local adaptation planning in either country due to existing policy, legal and regulatory frameworks. Local government in England has not only experienced a decline in use of climate projections, but also the waning of the climate change adaptation agenda more widely, amidst changes in the planning and regulatory framework and severe budget cuts. In Germany, spatial planning makes substantial use of past and present climate data, but the strictly regulated nature of planning prevents the use of climate projections, due to their inherent uncertainties. Findings from the two countries highlight that if we are to better understand the usability of climate projections, we need to be more aware of the institutional context within which planning decisions are made. Otherwise we run the risk of continuing to provide tools and information that are of limited use within their intended context.

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“…As climate continues to change, incremental adaptation actions may not suffice (Kates et al 2012;Joyce et al 2013) and, in some cases, may institutionalize management practices that are maladaptive under the continually changing climate (Dilling et al 2015). Enabling socio-ecological rangeland systems to adapt may be a desired strategy.…”

Section: Developing Adaptation Optionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing Climate Change Risks in Rangeland Systems

Joyce

Marshall

2017

Rangeland Systems

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The management of rangelands has long involved adapting to climate variability to ensure that economic enterprises remain viable and ecosystems sustainable; climate change brings the potential for change that surpasses the experience of humans within rangeland systems. Adaptation will require an intentionality to address the effects of climate change. Knowledge of vulnerability in these systems provides the foundation upon which to base adaptation strategies; however, few vulnerability assessments have examined and integrated the climate vulnerability of the ecological, economic, and social components of rangeland systems. The capacity of ecosystems, humans, and institutions to adjust to potential damage and to take advantage of opportunities is termed adaptive capacity. Given past attempts to cope with drought, current adaptive capacity is not sufficient to sustain rangeland enterprises under increasing climatic variability. Just as ecosystem development is affected by past events, historical studies suggest that past events in human communities influence future choices in response to day-to-day as well as abrupt events. All adaptation is local and no single adaptation approach works in all settings. A risk framework for adaptation could integrate key vulnerabilities, risk, and hazards, and facilitate development of adaptation actions that address the entire socio-ecological system. Adaptation plans will need to be developed and implemented with recognition of future uncertainty that necessitates an iterative implementation process as new experience and information accumulate. Developing the skills to manage with uncertainty may be a singularly important strategy that landowners, managers, and scientists require to develop adaptive capacity.

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The dynamics of vulnerability: why adapting to climate variability will not always prepare us for climate change

Cited by 116 publications

References 82 publications

Transformation, adaptation and development: relating concepts to practice

Transformation, adaptation and development: relating concepts to practice

Adaptation planning and the use of climate change projections in local government in England and Germany

Managing Climate Change Risks in Rangeland Systems

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