The Dynamics of European Party Systems: Changing Patterns of Electoral Volatility

Abstract

In recent years it has become increasingly difficult to maintain that the European party systems are stable and that they reflect the societal cleavage structures of the past. One developmental aspect of the party systems is singled out for description and analysis in this paper. It is argued that European party systems in terms of electoral volatility, i.e. rates of net change in the electorates, are drifting away from each other. Some of the party systems which have traditionally been considered volatile, apparently are becoming less so, while some other systems are taking on the character of highly volatile party systems. A simple set of hypotheses, based upon the notion of party space, is proposed in order to account for the variation observed. The data lend support to the hypothesis that electoral volatility is a function of the format of the party system and of short‐term changes in that format.

Intra-Campaign Changes in Voting Preferences: The Impact of Media and Party Communication

“…An increasing number of voters change their party preferences from one election to another, a phenomenon that is commonly described as electoral volatility (e.g., Hobolt, Spoon, & Tilley, 2009; Kramer, 1970; Lazarsfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1948; Pedersen, 1979; Zaller, 2004). 1 Electoral volatility has frequently been observed across countries and been addressed by a growing body of literature (e.g., Dassonneville, 2012; Jennings & Wlezien, 2016; Pedersen, 1979).…”

“… 1 Electoral volatility has frequently been observed across countries and been addressed by a growing body of literature (e.g., Dassonneville, 2012; Jennings & Wlezien, 2016; Pedersen, 1979). Within this framework, inter-election vote switching is understood as a long-term process that predominantly affects the formation and evolution of party preferences (e.g., Hobolt et al, 2009).…”

Party Strength and Economic Growth

“…Change in share of votes received by each party from election to election according to the Pedersen (1979) index. Source: Authors.…”

Volatility and Western European Party Systems: Two New Approaches

“…The distinction between net and gross voter volatility significantly enhanced enquiries regarding the links between voters and political parties (Pedersen, 1979) as it allowed for in-depth examinations of whether electoral behaviour can be described as frozen-meaning that it is hardly changing. Table 1 reveals that between 1970 and 2000 volatility has risen from five to ten per cent to fifteen to twenty-five per cent.…”