The Dynamic Model of Choice for Public Policy Reconsidered: A Formal Analysis With an Application to US Budget Data

Jensen, Jens Ledet; Mortensen, Peter B.; Serritzlew, Søren

doi:10.1093/jopart/muv007

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…With the toolbox of distributional analysis used previously, we can reject the classic incrementalism model of normally distributed year-to-year changes. We also know that Padgett's (1980) serial judgement model as well as Jones and Baumgartner's (2005b) dynamic model of choice for public policy are more consistent with observed output distributions than the incrementalism model (Jensen, Mortensen and Serritzlew 2016). Yet, a broad set of alternative models may be just as or even more consistent with observed budget distributions.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 62%

A Comparative Distributional Method for Public Administration Illustrated Using Public Budget Data

Jensen

Mortensen

Serritzlew

2018

Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory

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Many outputs and outcomes of relevance to public administration research are distributed in a way that escapes simple statistical descriptives. The field of public administration has generally been slow to acknowledge this fact, but in recent years the research field of public budgeting has experienced what we term a "distributional turn" reflected in a massive increase in publications studying distributions of changes in public budgets. Yet, distributional budget studies still rely on inadequate statistical methods. In this paper, we introduce a comparative distributional method (CDM), which allows for inferential statistics and statistical modeling of distributions. It also allows for specification of parameter values that precisely characterize the empirical distribution. All this is important for systematic comparisons of empirical distributions. We illustrate the usefulness of the CDM approach by analyzing budget data from seven countries and conclude with a discussion of how this new method can be extended to other areas of public administration than public budgeting.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 62%

A Comparative Distributional Method for Public Administration Illustrated Using Public Budget Data

Jensen

Mortensen

Serritzlew

2018

Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory

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“…The key dependent variable in the analysis is Budget Punctuation . Policy punctuation scholars have long found that the distribution of budget and other policy changes is characterized with sharper peaks and heavier tails than those from normal distributions (e.g., Jones, Baumgartner, & True, 1998; Jensen, Mortensen, & Serritzlew, 2016, 2018; Jones et al, 2003, 2009). Figure 1 shows the distribution of spending changes.…”

Section: Data and Research Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Explaining State Budget Punctuations: Policy Transparency, Political Institutions, and Electoral Incentives

Li¹,

Feiock²

2019

Policy Studies Journal

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What factors cause policies experiencing long periods of stability to be interrupted occationally by a short period of large changes? This study argues that electoral incentives might influence the search, supply, and processing of information on constituency issues, as well as the associated cognitive or institutional frictions, and thus determine the presence and variation of punctuated policies. This article develops and evaluates this claim within a systemic framework consisting of policy transparency, political institutions, and electoral incentives. For the purpose of identifying policy punctuations, this research uses the Generalized Pareto Distribution in the Extreme Value Theory. This study analyzes budget spending data collected from FY 1988 to FY 2008 for all 50 American states. This study finds that greater policy transparency is associated with larger spending stability. By contrast, greater gubernatorial competition is more likely to produce extreme spending changes. Electoral incentives shaped by public preference and political term limits have a profound impact on nonincremental policy changes. The impact of policy transparency is conditional on public preference, while that of electoral competition and legislative professionalism is moderated by political term limits. Particularly, a transparent policy consistent with public preference and legislative professionalism with term limits are more likely to give rise to punctuated policies, while gubernatorial (legislative) competition leads to less punctuated changes when governors (legislators) are subject to term limits.

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“…In general, public policy scholars are increasingly using literature from political economy (e.g. Green-Pedersen et al 2017;Breunig et al 2017;Jensen et al 2016). Political economy can reinvigorate the classic approaches.…”

Section: Limitations Of Comparative Political Economymentioning

confidence: 99%

Theories of Policy Change and Variation Reconsidered: A Prospectus for the Political Economy of Public Policy

John

2015

SSRN Journal

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Studies of decision-making in public policy may be conceived as three distinct ages of theory building and testing. The first was the classic period of studies of decisionmaking and rationality; the second was the age of synthesis when theories of decisionmaking were blended into accounts of agenda setting. The third-which is starting to take shape-is the age of the political economy of public policy, drawing on models and methods that have been applied to the study of international relations and comparative politics, which are increasingly addressing issues in public policy. The paper's argument offers a challenge to public policy scholars to use theory and approaches from political economy and to integrate them with classic and synthetic approaches. Insights from public policy approaches from the first two ages could also inform the political economy of public policy. The paper contains a review of the development of public policy theory in the 1990s; it provides an account of the recent period as one of relative stability; it then presents work in comparative political economy as examples of research on public policy.Keywords Public policy Á Political economy Á Decision-making So far there have been two ages in the study of decision-making in public policy: the firstthe classic period-was when key terms were defined. Debates took place about the nature of decision-making and the extent to which full information prevails. It was the time when incrementalism, the rational model, the stages heuristic and sectoral representations of decision-making processes were elaborated, notably set out as the second two lens in Allison's influential Essence of Decision (1971). The second and synthetic age was of complex accounts of decision-making, which produced the policy advocacy coalition framework, the garbage can and policy window metaphors, and the punctuated equilibrium model-the currency of many of today's policy scholars. In these frameworks of analysis,

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The Dynamic Model of Choice for Public Policy Reconsidered: A Formal Analysis With an Application to US Budget Data

Cited by 11 publications

References 28 publications

A Comparative Distributional Method for Public Administration Illustrated Using Public Budget Data

A Comparative Distributional Method for Public Administration Illustrated Using Public Budget Data

Explaining State Budget Punctuations: Policy Transparency, Political Institutions, and Electoral Incentives

Theories of Policy Change and Variation Reconsidered: A Prospectus for the Political Economy of Public Policy

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