The Dynamic Evolution of Global Energy Security and Geopolitical Games: 1995~2019

Abstract

Under the influence of economic globalization, the internationalization trend of energy security issues has become increasingly prominent. This paper adopts the natural discontinuity grading method to classify the energy security status of 102 countries into five categories: Best, Better, Good, Poor and Worse types; reveals the dynamic evolution characteristics and main formation mechanisms of world energy security; and puts forward the game focus of future energy geopolitics. The results show that: (1) during 1995–2019, global energy security presents local turbulence and an overall “J” shaped trend; (2) the global energy security pattern coincides with the international geopolitical order. The countries with the “Best” energy security are found in Western Europe and North America while the countries with “Poor” or “Worse” energy security are located in Asia and the less developed regions of Africa; (3) the main reason why developed economies have better energy security is due to their high energy use efficiency, while developing countries lag behind mainly because of their lower innovation capacity, lower productivity and lower disposable income; and (4) the global energy security landscape is expected to be affected by the changing US–China relationship, coercive energy transition and the uncertainty of the political environment.

Energy Security: A Conceptual Overview

“…The use of quantitative methods has become mainstream in energy security studies, especially in cross-country comparisons and long-term research [69]. The analysis covers not only energy supply but also comprehensive risks, including energy transportation and energy use [70].…”

“…Also, the availability of data and the diversity of concepts and dimensions related to energy security can significantly affect the selection of energy security indicators. Commonly used indicators include energy consumption per capita, energy intensity, energy self-sufficiency, electricity prices, electricity supply, CO 2 emissions per capita, and CO 2 emissions [69,71].…”

Towards energy sustainability: Exploring the nexus between global value chain participation and energy security in developing and developed countries

“…Reforming the energy industry and recognizing geopolitics in international energy investment arbitration are encouraged. Hu et al [ 15 ] categorized 102 countries’ energy security into five categories, showing the "J" trend associated with the world geopolitical order. Developed economies benefit from efficient energy use, while developing countries lag due to a lack of innovation and low disposable income.…”

“…This approach has resulted in a gap in understanding how these critical factors interconnect in developed and developing nations, with a specific emphasis on the contributions of human capital, foreign direct investment (FDI), and political stability. The aforementioned studies [3,[13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22], have provided valuable contributions in the fields of energy security, innovation, and renewable energy. However, they have not comprehensively explored the complex relationship between energy security and GVC involvement by considering human capital, political stability, and FDI, specifically across a set of developed and developing countries.…”

Navigating through the Storm—The Challenges of the Energy Transition in the European Union

“…In recent years, there have been increasingly strong constraints in the energy area generated by various geopolitical actions with important economic and social effects. Consequently, imbalances in the economic sector have influenced environmental decisions [24][25][26]. For this reason, energies considered dirty, such as coal or nuclear energy, have been reconsidered due to their role in energy security goals [27,28].…”