The Duterte method: A neoclassical realist guide to understanding a small power’s foreign policy and strategic behaviour in the Asia-Pacific

Abstract

In the contemporary Asia-Pacific context, the fault lines leading to the Thucydides trap can be attributed to the continuing strategic competition between a seemingly declining United States and a rising China. Failure to circumvent this trap can ultimately result in a war of all against all. Against this backdrop, this article investigates how a small power re-evaluates its foreign policy and strategic behaviour using neoclassical realism theory. In particular, I examine President Rodrigo Duterte’s method which is characterized by four key elements: cultivating a more favourable image for China; moderating the country’s American-influenced strategic culture; mobilizing state-society relations supportive of ‘Sinicization’; and reorienting the country’s Western-based institutions to better accommodate Chinese pressures and incentives. Does a China-centric approach give a small power an indispensable strategic capital to successfully navigate and exploit both the challenges and opportunities of the impending new order? Do the Philippines’ shifting rules of engagement under the Duterte administration represent a forward-thinking strategic outlook rather than a defeatist and naïve stance? The article answers these questions by examining the factors and dynamics underpinning the conception and construction of the Duterte method, as well as its implications a vis-a-vis a small power’s foreign policy and strategic behaviour.

Contestations of the Liberal International Order

“…From his first day in office, Duterte made clear that he would put Philippine foreign policy on a new course, away from the traditional US dependency (Heydarian, 2018: 43). The Philippine leader did not only challenge the country's oldest allies but also questioned its long-standing commitment to the LIO (Heydarian, 2018;Magcamit, 2018). Duterte's political strategy is illiberal in the sense that he views human rights as particular rather than universal and staunchly opposes their imposition upon Asian nations (Curato, 2017: 16).…”

Indonesia’s Global Maritime Fulcrum: From Hedging to Underbalancing

“…The grand strategic choices of the strongest states are crucial to an understanding of the international system at any given moment (Kitchen, 2010). However, some scholars have expanded the scope of neoclassical realism to analyse small and medium countries, such as Georgia's foreign policy (Gvalia et al, 2019) and the Philippines' foreign policy between the seemingly declining USA and a rising China (Magcamit, 2019).…”

Indonesia’s Foreign and Maritime Policies Under Joko Widodo: Domestic and External Determinants

“…The articles employing neoclassical realism identify systemic/external stimuli that Indonesia currently faces, highlighting the importance of domestic politics in shaping various stakeholders' perception on such stimuli, as well as in influencing their conception of foreign policy goals and national interest (He, 2008;Korolev & Portyakov, 2018;Kuik, 2012;Laksmana, 2016;Lobell et al, 2009, p. 322;Magcamit, 2020;Meibauer, 2020;Rose, 1998;Sari, 2019;Sebastian & Syailendra, 2017;Smith, 2019;Sulaiman, 2019;Syailendra, 2017). 9 Departing from neorealism, which suggests that states placed in a similar position in the international system would behave similarly despite differing domestic structures, neoclassical realists 'seek to explain variation in the foreign policies of the same state over time or across different states facing similar external constraints' (Taliaferro et al, 2009, p. 21).…”

“…9. Neoclassical realist scholars emphasise that state behaviour is influenced by domestic political situations when adapting to the external environment (Korolev & Portyakov, 2018;Kuik, 2012;Lobell et al, 2009;Magcamit, 2020;Meibauer, 2020;Rose, 1998;Smith, 2019). For an application of neoclassical realism in the study of Indonesia's foreign and security policy, see (He, 2008;Laksmana, 2016;Sari, 2019;Sebastian & Syailendra, 2017;Sulaiman, 2019;Syailendra, 2017).…”