The Dutch Disease Phenomenon and Lessons for Guyana: Trinidad and Tobago's Experience

Wenner, Mark D.; Bollers, Elton; Hosein, Roger

doi:10.18235/0001203

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…The spending effect is associated with increasing prices in the non-tradable sectors (i.e. services), which provoke the appreciation of the exchange rate and limit the competitiveness of the tradeable sector in the international market (Wenner et al, 2018). Comparing the real exchange rate between the Guyanese dollar and US dollar confirms the presence of the spending effect.…”

Section: 2mentioning

confidence: 84%

Perspectives on diversification prospects for the agrifood industry in Guyana

2020

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Section: 2mentioning

confidence: 84%

Perspectives on diversification prospects for the agrifood industry in Guyana

2020

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“…The phenomenon of the Dutch disease is evident in Trinidad and Tobago (Hosein & Tewarie, 2004;Wenner, Bollers, & Hosein, 2018) and the declining interest in agricultural production is evident by the aging farmers upon whom food production is dependent. Further, talented youth are steering away from agricultural education and farming activities in quest for educational pursuits and employment opportunities in better paid areas (Tripathi, Dixit, Singh, & Yadav, 2018;Leavy & Hossain, 2014;Thompson & Russell, 1993).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Surplus revenue from industrial development can have a negative response for make-work programs such as CEPEP. These include negative impacts on work ethic and productivity, persons become less diligent in job searches and it compromises the long-term growth potential of the economy by stifling more dynamic sectors (Wenner, Bollers, & Hosein, 2018). Employment creation through make-work program provides an artificial reduction in the national unemployment data.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The reality of a shrinking agricultural work force resulting from employment preferences in other sectors as well as in social make-work programs will have an impact on agricultural development. Wenner, Bollers & Hosein (2018) in the publication "The Dutch Disease Phenomenon and Lessons for Guyana: Trinidad and Tobago's Experience" has demonstrated the impact of make-work programs on agriculture employment. It was revealed that there was a forty-three percent (43%) contraction in agriculture employment for the period 2001 to 2008 with a simultaneous increase in employment (16.3%) in the social make-work programs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Welfare Employment and Its Impact on the Agricultural Sector Workforce in Trinidad, West Indies

Ramdwar¹,

Ganpat²,

Solomon³

2020

JAS

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The agricultural sector in Trinidad and Tobago is characterized by a labor shortage. A qualitative research design was used to investigate the impact of a national welfare employment program, on the agriculture labor sector. The study recruited n = 19 Community-Based Environmental Protection and Enhancement Program (CEPEP) employees, n = 10 farmers and n = 7 agricultural professionals for in-depth interviews and focus group sessions. A review was conducted of newspaper articles and national budget statements for content related to CEPEP and agriculture. A thematic analysis was conducted to establish themes from the data gathered from the participants and from the media review. The themes emerged were “CEPEP’s benefits to agriculture”, “Labor shortages in Agriculture”, “Convenience Employment” and “Challenges to CEPEP in Agriculture”. The study concludes that welfare employment can be incorporated into the development agenda for agriculture in Trinidad and Tobago once the issues of capacity building, retooling and mentorship, wage adjustments are factored into a structured program.

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“…As noted (Gylfason, 2001), the 'Dutch Disease' phenomenon, a scenario where the increase in revenues from natural resources leads to a decline in the manufacturing sector, often poses a signi cant challenge. For Iraq, overcoming this obstacle necessitates conscious policies and investments to nurture non-oil sectors (Wenner et al, 2018).…”

Section: Literature Review and Theoretical Framework: Dissecting Iraq...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Harnessing AI for Economic Forecasting: Navigating Rentier Economies Towards Diversification and Sustainable Growth - A Case Study of Iraq

Salah,

Khissaf,

Abdelfattah

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Venturing into the crossroads of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and economic development, this study employs AI models for economic forecasting within the context of Iraq, a quintessential rentier state. Drawing on the theoretical underpinnings of rentier state theory and diversification strategies, it harnesses OpenAI's advanced language models, ChatGPT and googles AI Bard, to generate an array of potential economic trajectories. The results provide an insightful probe into the impacts of global oil market trends, the socio-economic implications of public dissatisfaction under economic instability, and the potential benefits of economic diversification. The study investigates the unique challenges facing Iraq, a country rich in oil resources but wrestling with economic stagnation and socio-political instability. The AI models are utilized to generate and dissect potential future scenarios for Iraq's economy, elucidating the critical issues related to its heavy dependence on oil, the sustainability of its bloated public sector, and the ramifications of these factors on socio-economic stability. The analysis underlines the urgent need for robust economic diversification and provides strategic policy recommendations to steer Iraq towards a more resilient and sustainable economic future. This study illuminates the pathway towards economic diversification in Iraq by seamlessly integrating AI models with traditional research methodologies. It demonstrates the potential of AI as an essential tool in economic forecasting and policy planning within economic development studies.

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The Dutch Disease Phenomenon and Lessons for Guyana: Trinidad and Tobago's Experience

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

Perspectives on diversification prospects for the agrifood industry in Guyana

Perspectives on diversification prospects for the agrifood industry in Guyana

Welfare Employment and Its Impact on the Agricultural Sector Workforce in Trinidad, West Indies

Harnessing AI for Economic Forecasting: Navigating Rentier Economies Towards Diversification and Sustainable Growth - A Case Study of Iraq

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