The Double Jeopardy in high street footfall

Abstract

Purpose Calls for empirical and theory-based outcome measures in the place marketing literature are made more pressing as policymakers manage post-COVID high street recovery. This study aims to evaluate how knowledge of repeat buying established in the consumer marketing domain might be adapted to benchmark place marketing effectiveness, applying the Law of Double Jeopardy to capture the predictable relationship between footfall and visit frequency on competing high streets. Design/methodology/approach The authors match footfall and survey data collected simultaneously on nine local high streets in one London borough to ask if a predictable Double Jeopardy relationship exists. The authors then test the theoretical assumptions of independence that underpin the Law in patterns of switching; the predictable distribution of regular, infrequent and new visitors; and the absence of user segmentation. Findings The authors observe that Double Jeopardy constrains behavioural outcomes, that a simple model fits high street footfall data well and that its theoretical assumptions are supported. Originality/value This paper makes several practical and theoretical contributions. The authors demonstrate a method to model expected repeat visit frequency from footfall density and elaborate footfall data into its frequency classes. The authors also locate the effects of loyalty over time within existing knowledge of spatial competition for high street patronage and demonstrate how place marketing insights can be derived from applications of this useful law.