The Domino Effect and Integrated Probabilistic Approaches for Risk Analysis

Structural fragments and explosions in industrial facilities. Part I: Probabilistic description of the source terms

“…The fragment features are described as random variables, as it has been also suggested by several authors (Hauptmanns, 2001a, b;Holden, 1988;INERIS, 2002aINERIS, , b, 2004Lees, 2005;Pula et al, 2007). -An impact analysis: this step considers the conditions for an impact between a projectile (fragment) and a target (for instance, an industrial component in the neighbourhood), as it has been also investigated by many authors, (Hauptmanns, 2001a,b;Mé barki et al, 2005; Mé barki, Ami Saada, Nguyen, Mercier, & Reimeringer, 2007a;Nguyen et al, 2006;Pula et al, 2006Pula et al, , 2007, -A mechanical damage analysis: this stage investigates the interaction between the fragments and the impacted facilities and can lead to a probability of failure, for instance, (Mé barki et al, 2005(Mé barki et al, , 2008; Mé barki, Ami Saada, Nguyen, Mercier, & Reimeringer, 2007a;Mé barki, Nguyen, Mercier, Ami Saada, Meftah, & Reimeringer, 2007b;Mercier et al, 2006;Nguyen et al, 2006).…”

“…1) and so on. This scenario corresponds to the so-called ''domino effect'' that constitutes a threat for pressurized enclosures, (Cozzani, Tugnoli, & Salzano, 2007, in press;Hauptmanns, 2001a,b;Holden, 1988;INERIS, 2002aINERIS, ,b, 2004Khan & Abbasi, 1999, 2001a, Khan, Husain, & Abbasi, 2002;Lees, 2005; Mé barki, Ami Saada, Nguyen, Mercier, Meftah, & Reimeringer, 2005, 2007a; Mé barki, Ami Saada, Nguyen, Mercier, & Reimeringer, 2007a;Mé barki, Nguyen, Mercier, Ami Saada, & Reimeringer, 2008;Mercier, Boulanger, Mé barki, Brunet, & Reimeringer, 2006;Nguyen, Mé barki, Mercier, Ami Saada, & Reimeringer, 2006;Pula, Khan, Veitch, & Amyotte, 2006Tugnoli, Khan, Amyotte, & Cozzani, 2008a, b). The domino effect may also occur with solid explosive storages.…”

A Monte-Carlo method used to study the fragment impact effect on the industrial facilities

“…It unfolds the ring, then propagates itself to the edges of the vessel, at last, following the circumference, detaches one or two end-caps. In two cases, the ring is either unfolded and remains at the origin, or it generates one or two fragments [7,8]. This explains why the quantity of plate is smaller than the one of end-cap and oblong end-cap (see Sect.…”

Structural fragments and explosions in industrial facilities: Part II – Projectile trajectory and probability of impact

“…As a great attention is devoted to the risk assessment of domino effect occurrence, the accuracy of the evaluation relies on the hypotheses and the adequacy of the models developed for each constitutive part of the whole domino effect sequence (Cozzani, Tugnoli, & Salzano, 2007, in press;Gubinelli, Zanelli, & Cozzani, 2004;Hauptmanns, 2001aHauptmanns, , 2001bHolden, 1998;INERIS, 2002aINERIS, , 2002bINERIS, , 2004Khan & Abbasi, 1999, 2001a, 2001b, 2001cKhan, Husain, & Abbasi, 2002;Lees, 2005;Mé barki et al, 2005; Mé barki, Ami Saada, Nguyen, Mercier, & Reimeringer, 2007;Mé barki, Mercier, Nguyen, & Ami Saada, 2009;Mercier, Boulanger, Mé barki, Brunet, & Reimeringer, 2006;Nguyen, Mé barki, Mercier, Ami Saada, & Reimeringer, 2006;Pula, Khan, Veitch, & Amyotte, 2006Tugnoli, Khan, Amyotte, & Cozzani, 2008a, 2008b:…”