The Domestic Sources of International Reputation

Abstract

Existing research finds that leaders develop international reputations based on their past behavior on the international stage. We argue that leaders’ domestic choices can also influence their international reputations, perhaps as much as their past foreign policy decisions do. Using formal theory and intuitive argumentation, we develop an overarching framework to predict how much any domestic choice will affect a leader’s international reputation. We theorize that certain domestic choices can inform expectations about future international crisis behavior based on the extent to which (1) the costs at stake are similar to those of an international crisis and (2) the domestic issue is salient relative to foreign policy. We use conjoint experiments and other evidence to show that many domestic choices have significant international reputational effects. There is some evidence that the reputational effect of certain domestic choices may equal that of fighting in a previous international crisis.

War power through restraint: The politics of unilateral military action after 1945

“…6 Appendix B presents these mappings in a table with additional description. the probability of an adversary backing down, weakly increasing with the number of domestic challenges resisted (Goldfien et al, 2023).…”

“…If unilateral escalation continues despite a congressional challenge , this betrays a firm presidential willingness, if not ability, to pursue the policy. Relative to other outcomes, this one may positively shape the probability of an adversary backing down, weakly increasing with the number of domestic challenges resisted (Goldfien et al, 2023).…”

For Example: How to Use Examples in Political Science

“…The second reason to use examples is more didactic in its emphasis: to teach readers something they did not already know about the world. An American Political Science Review paper by Goldfien, Joseph, and McManus (2023) uses formal modelling and a conjoint experiment to support its thesis that domestic policy decisions have a demonstration effect when it comes to how leaders in other countries view the resolve of the leader making the decision. However, the article begins with a vivid story about how in 1981 President Ronald Reagan's firing of 11,345 striking air traffic controllers signaled his resolve to the Soviet Union.…”

“…In my earlier discussion of Goldfien, Joseph, and McManus (2023) on domestic decisions signaling foreign policy resolve, I noted the compelling storyline in its opening example. I also commented on the apparently weak evidence contained in the example.…”

Just Patronage? Familiarity and the Diplomatic Value of Non-Career Ambassadors

“…The powerful logic of cheap talk (see, e.g., Fearon 1994) spurred a torrent of important work aimed at explaining the apparent credibility of private or ‘costless’ diplomacy (e.g., Trager 2017; Ramsay 2011; Sartori 2002; Yarhi-Milo 2013; Holmes 2018). With increased confidence in the potential for diplomacy to influence international outcomes, scholars—particularly those working in a rationalist or political psychology tradition—have begun to explore diplomatic practice, including research on high-level diplomatic travel (Lebovic and Saunders 2016; Malis and Smith 2021; McManus 2018; Goldsmith et al 2021), the role of status and reputation (Duque 2018; Pouliot 2016; Goldfien et al 2023), and the appointment and performance of envoys and ambassadors (Lindsey 2017; MacDonald 2021; Towns and Niklasson 2017; Haglund 2015; Hollibaugh Jr 2015; Arias and Smith 2018; Fedderke and Jett 2017; Malis 2021). 4…”