There is little consensus as to why there is so much variation in the rates at which different species' geographic ranges expand in response to climate warming 1,2 . Here we show that the relative importance of species' abundance trends and habitat availability for British butterfly species vary over time. Species with high habitat availability expanded more rapidly from the 1970s to mid-1990s, when abundances were generally stable, whereas habitat availability effects were confined to the subset of species with stable abundances from the mid-1990s to 2009, when abundance trends were generally declining. This suggests that stable (or positive) abundance trends are a prerequisite for range expansion. Given that species' abundance trends vary over time 3 for non-climatic as well as climatic reasons, assessment of abundance trends will help improve predictions of species' responses to climate change, and help us to understand the likely success of different conservation strategies for facilitating their expansions.Identifying species' traits associated with rapid range expansions in response to climate change provides insight into the conservation strategies most likely to be successful 4 . However, such understanding may be difficult to attain, given that the ability of species' traits, such as reproductive rate, to explain responses to climate change is frequently low 2 . Previous studies suggest that the expansion of species' distributions across landscapes will depend on species' dispersal abilities 1,5,6 , the availability of habitat 7 and population abundance trends, which determine the supply of migrants to colonize new locations 8 . Species' population and distribution trends will also be affected by interactions between traits and the environment, thus predictions of range expansions may be limited if habitat availability and population trends are not considered simultaneously. Furthermore, abundance trends vary over time 3 , associated with variability in climate warming 9 and habitat quality and quantity 10 , so it might be expected that the relative importance of predictors of distribution changes also vary over time.Here, we consider the roles of abundance trends, habitat availability and dispersal capacity in the range changes of 25 British butterfly species during two periods. Distribution changes were measured between blocks of time (