The diagnosis and forecast of clear sky ultraviolet levels at the Earth's surface

Austin, J.; Barwell, B. R.; Cox, Stephen J.; Hughes, Philippa; Knight, Jeff; Ross, Gill; Sinclair, Peter C.; Webb, Ann R.

doi:10.1002/met.5060010403

Cited by 36 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Finally, the clear-sky UV index is calculated using the solar zenith angle and day of the year. Other operational centres have developed similar systems (Austin et al, 1994, for the Met Office). An operational ozone DA system could be used to replace the first two steps of the procedure, with potentially better accuracy.…”

Section: Assimilation Of Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

Data assimilation of stratospheric constituents: a review

et al. 2007

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Abstract. The data assimilation of stratospheric constituents is reviewed. Several data assimilation methods are introduced, with particular consideration to their application to stratospheric constituent measurements. Differences from meteorological data assimilation are outlined. Historically, two approaches have been used to carry out constituent assimilation. One approach has carried constituent assimilation out as part of a Numerical Weather Prediction system; the other has carried it out in a standalone chemical model, often with a more sophisticated representation of chemical processes. Whereas the aim of the Numerical Weather Prediction approach has been to improve weather forecasts, the aims of the chemical model approach have included providing chemical forecasts and analyses of chemical constituents. A range of constituent assimilation systems developed in these two areas is presented and strengths and weaknesses discussed. The use of stratospheric constituent data assimilation to evaluate models, observations and analyses, and to provide analyses of constituents, monitor ozone, and make ozone forecasts is discussed. Finally, the current state of affairs is assessed, future directions are discussed, and potential key drivers identified.

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Section: Assimilation Of Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

Data assimilation of stratospheric constituents: a review

et al. 2007

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“…Since the discovery of ozone depletion in the Antarctic lower stratosphere, the increase in the surface UV‐B radiation induced by ozone depletion has received wide attention. After several pioneering works [e.g., Austin et al , 1994; Burrows et al , 1994], meteorological agencies around the world have developed operational monitoring and prediction systems for surface erythematic UV radiation [see Bais et al , 2007, Appendix 7b].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…After several pioneering works [e.g., Austin et al, 1994;Burrows et al, 1994], meteorological agencies around the world have developed operational monitoring and prediction systems for surface erythematic UV radiation [see Bais et al, 2007, Appendix 7b].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future projections of surface UV-B in a changing climate

et al. 2011

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[1] Results of comprehensive long-term simulations of surface all-sky and clear-sky ultraviolet (UV) radiation through 1960-2100 are presented. A new earth system model, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, is used for the simulation, which considers key processes that change the surface UV radiation: atmospheric dynamics and chemistry affecting ozone in the stratosphere and troposphere, aerosols and clouds in the troposphere, and changes in surface albedo with sea ice and snow cover. In contrast to previous assessments considering only the effect of long-term change in stratospheric ozone, the simulated long-term behavior of UV radiation in this study is strongly affected by other processes. In one of two simulations, all-sky UV radiation in the northern midlatitudes is projected to increase in the 21st century despite the expected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Reductions in aerosols and clouds are expected to overcompensate for the effect of ozone recovery. The results are sensitive to the future socioeconomic scenario, describing GHG concentrations and emissions of aerosol and ozone precursors in the troposphere. The interannual variability of UV radiation associated with the 11 year solar cycle and local processes is also discussed.

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“…A number of different approaches are being used to derive shortterm forecasts of atmospheric total ozone (e.g. Austin et al, 1994;Burrows et al, 1994;P o u h & Evans, 1994). Most of the ozone forecasts use meteorologic-Forecasts of biologically effective W radiation relative vorticities at 00 and 12 UTC for day i at pressure level j ; the coefficients are given in Table 1. It can be seen from Table 1 that different sets of predictors appear to be the most suitable ones in different months, and that the number of predictors actually used ranges between 2 and 8 (i.e.…”

Section: Ozone Forecastmentioning

confidence: 99%