The development trend of China’s aging population: a forecast perspective

Liu, Xuchong; Zhu, Jianian; Zou, Kai

doi:10.1007/s40747-022-00685-x

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…We found that both the ozone levels and population affect the ∆M from ozone exposure. With the obvious trend of population aging in China [49,50], the population is likely to increase the weight of influence on premature mortality due to ozone pollution in the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Ozone Pollution and Resultant Increased Human Health Risks in Central China

Tian,

Wang,

Han

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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The spatiotemporal characteristics of ozone pollution and increased human health risks in Central China were investigated using a long time series of ozone concentrations from 2014 to 2020. We found a gradual increase in ozone pollution, with the highest concentrations observed in the northeastern region. The spatial distribution of population density showed distinct patterns, with the northeastern and east-central regions coinciding with areas of high ozone concentrations. The study found an overall increasing trend in MDA8 ozone concentrations, with a regional average increase of 3.5 (μg m−3) per year, corresponding to a 4.4% annual increase. We observed a significant clustering of areas at a higher risk of premature mortality associated with long-term ozone exposure, particularly in the northeastern region. Estimated premature mortality due to ozone pollution in Central China between 2014 and 2020 shows an increasing trend from 2014 to 2019 and a decreasing trend in 2020 due to the occurrence of extreme ozone pollution and the subsequent recovery of ozone concentrations after the closures due to COVID-19. Premature mortality due to ozone exposure is affected by both ozone levels and the exposed population, with high correlation coefficients exceeding 0.95. The high total population (more than 220 million per year) and increasing ozone levels exacerbate the problem of premature mortality due to ozone pollution. This study improves our understanding of the impact of ozone pollution on human health and emphasizes the dynamic nature of ozone pollution and its impacts on human health over time. It underscores the need for further study and comprehensive action to mitigate these health risks.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Ozone Pollution and Resultant Increased Human Health Risks in Central China

Tian,

Wang,

Han

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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“…Chen et al 47 found that compared with the Malthusian model, unary linear regression model, and logistic model, the grey prediction model has the highest accuracy. Recently, Liu et al 48 established a new grey prediction model (CFODGMW (1, 1, α)) to study the aging of China's population. Guo et al 49 put forward a new grey population prediction model.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…After conducting a comprehensive analysis of existing literature, it is clear that researchers have primarily focused on population forecasting of national-level populations 10 , 39 , 48 while comparatively neglecting the subject of urban population projection 18 . Notably, although cities and nations share some similarities in terms of projected population outcomes, variations exist as well.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban population prediction based on multi-objective lioness optimization algorithm and system dynamics model

Liu¹,

Yan²,

Wang³

2023

Sci Rep

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Population size is closely related to economic and social development and change. It is one of the primary and essential elements of overall urban development planning to formulate a population development strategy scientifically through population projections. Therefore, we propose an urban population prediction model based on a multi-objective lioness optimization algorithm and system dynamics. The multi-objective lioness optimization algorithm is used to optimize some critical parameters of the system dynamics model to reduce the subjectivity of the model construction. Taking Xi’an as an example, the validity of the model is verified, and the population size of Xi’an from 2019 to 2050 is predicted by the model. In addition, the impact of different policies and their combinations on the future population is discussed through simulations of three scenarios composed of five policy factors: birth, employment, science and technology, healthcare and education. The results show that the total population of Xi’an will peak at 147,939,242 in 2040, based on current development trends. Moreover, the five policies with the largest to smallest positive effect on population size are: employment policy, fertility policy, education policy, science and technology policy, and health policy, with employment and fertility policies having significantly larger effects than the other three. Therefore, the employment policy and the birth policy are the two most effective policies to promote population growth, and the coordinated implementation of the five policies is the fastest way to increase population size.

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Influencing factors, gender differences and the decomposition of inequalities in cognitive function in Chinese older adults: a population-based cohort study

Yang,

Mao,

et al. 2024

BMC Geriatr

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Background Evidence remains limited and inconsistent for assessing cognitive function in Chinese older adults (CFCOA) and inequalities in cognitive function in Chinese older adults (ICFCOA) and exploring their influencing factors and gender differences. This study aimed to identify influencing factors and inequality in CFCOA to empirically explore the existence and sources of gender differences in such inequality and analyse their heterogeneous effects. Methods Based on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) for three periods from 2011 to 2015, recentered influence function unconditional quantile regression (RIF-UQR) and recentered influence function ordinary least squares (RIF-OLS) regression were applied to assess influencing factors of CFCOA, while grouped treatment effect estimation, Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, and propensity score matching (PSM) methods were conducted to identify gender differences in ICFCOA and influencing factors, respectively. Results The results showed heterogeneous effects of gender, age, low BMI, subjective health, smoking, education, social interactions, physical activity, and household registration on CFCOA. Additionally, on average, ICFCOA was about 19.2–36.0% higher among elderly females than among elderly males, mainly due to differences in characteristic effects and coefficient effects of factors such as marital status and education. Conclusions Different factors have heterogeneous and gender-differenced effects on CFCOA and ICFCOA, while the formation and exacerbation of ICFCOA were allied to marital status and education. Considering the severe ageing and the increasing incidence of cognitive decline, there is an urgent need for the government and society to adopt a comprehensive approach to practically work for promoting CFCOA and reducing ICFCOA.

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The development trend of China’s aging population: a forecast perspective

Cited by 4 publications

References 25 publications

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Ozone Pollution and Resultant Increased Human Health Risks in Central China

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Ozone Pollution and Resultant Increased Human Health Risks in Central China

Urban population prediction based on multi-objective lioness optimization algorithm and system dynamics model

Influencing factors, gender differences and the decomposition of inequalities in cognitive function in Chinese older adults: a population-based cohort study

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