Resources for the Future 1 The pace and direction of technological innovation in any industry depend on exogenous market forces, industrial structure, and government policies. The latter can include those primarily designed to influence the processes of research, development, and adoption as well as those which indirectly produce such results although having other explicit ends. l Two major obstacles to understanding and anticipating the pattern of technological change are the complexity of the linkages between markets, policies, and technologies and the difficulty of determining and characterizing the relevant features of the technologies themselves. Although economists are equipped to deal in a general, theoretical way with the question of innovation, they often do not have enough technical information at hand to be able to explain specific observed patterns or to provide a guide to the future of particular processes [27]. An important and illuminating example of this problem is the long and generally futile debate about the adoption of the basic oxygen furnace [BOF] in the domestic (U.S.) steel industry.In this debate, much of the evidence pro and con has been couched in terms of comparative country-by-country steel capacity (and production) data by furnace type. After reviewing the debate and this aggregate data,"a linear programming model of a hypothetical iron and steel production complex is described and then used to test empirically, from a microeconomic standpoint, the validity of the charge that the steel industry displayed unusual. sluggishness in capturing the cost-reducing fruits of technical progress involved in the BOF process. In order to demonstrate how the optimal investment decision is influenced by the scrap-hot metal price ratio, the technique of parametric programming of scrap prices is