The Development and Use of the NCB Strategic Model

Abstract

Development of the first version of the NCB strategic model started some 10 years ago. Building on experience gained in analysing individual elements of the energy system, a simple modular structure was chosen to model the UK supply of coal, the UK demand for energy and hence coal and the interaction of the two through price. The model has been the subject of continued development in response to new information and changing perceptions. Each year UK energy scenarios are developed for planning purposes using the energy model. Increasing emphasis has been placed on disaggregated modelling and a detailed model of the UK boiler stock is used for the growing industrial market for coal. Another area of interest has been the newly developing intemational trade in steam coal. A shipping and trade model has been developed and is now used as part of the planning process. The strategic model is thus a changing collection of individual models relevant to the issues of the day. Mechanized interaction between the models has proved difficult and not necessarily useful for planning purposes. One interesting spin-off has been the use of the model as an educational aid at the NCB's Staff College.

The history and ideas of critical rationalism: the philosophy of Karl Popper and its implications for OR

“…Popper's description of piecemeal engineering sounds very like certain classes of OR models, namely those that are, or are very like, economic models; energy models are a good example (Ormerod, 1980;Ormerod and McLeod, 1983). Of course, Popper had economic models very much in mind when he developed his idea of piecemeal social engineering; economics was the one area of social science where he believed progress was being made.…”

Logic and rationality in OR interventions: an examination in the light of the ‘critical rationalist’ approach

“…My own work on strategy and policy in the National Coal Board (later British Coal Corporation) was primarily conducted in the 'rational style' but, as the modelling effort was embedded in the policy formulation and decisionmaking process, it also included adopting the 'clientadvisory' and the 'argumentative' styles (Plackett et al, 1982;Ormerod and McLeod, 1984;Ormerod, 2010 c). Most of the activity was driven by the needs of processes outside the control of OR.…”

Reply to Ormerod

“…The strategic nature of the applications can be judged from Plackett et al (1982) and Ormerod and McLeod (1983). 6.…”

“…The first book on SCA was published in 1969 (Friend and Jessop, 1969). Another example is the energy game that we ran three times a year at the NCB staff college (Ormerod and McLeod, 1983). The game helped participants understand the different (pluralistic) points of view of the various energy industries and the (coercive) leverage each could exert.…”