The Development and Application of a Quasi-dynamic Food Chain Model in Chinese Agricultural Conditions

Abstract

A quasi-dynamic food chain model (Chi-FDMT) was developed to predict the consequences of nuclear accidents on the food chain through the ingestion pathway in Chinese agricultural conditions. The Chi-FDMT structure is based on ECOSYS-87, with some revised calculation processes and the adoption of new parameters; herein, it was applied to two regions in China. The model was used to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of crop plant activity and ingestion dose in the Chinese agricultural environment at the scale of the Fukushima nuclear disaster. A comparative study between Chi-FDMT and an equilibrium model demonstrated good agreement for depositions occurring during the growth season. The parameter sensitivity analysis of Chi-FDMT indicated that the parameters of food intake and processing factor are sensitive, and the sensitivity of the transfer factors within plant and soil-plant systems are dependent on the deposition scenario.