The Determinants of Wheat Variety Selection in Kansas, 1974 to 1993

Abstract

In 1993, over one-third of Kansas wheat acres were seeded to varieties with milling and baking qualities ranked “less desirable,” stimulating interest in the determinants of wheat variety selection. Regression analysis is used to quantify the relationship between planted varieties and wheat characteristics relating to production and end-use qualities. Results indicate that Kansas wheat producers consider end-use qualities, production characteristics, relative yields, yield stability, and past production decisions when selecting wheat varieties. Simulation results reveal potential tradeoffs facing wheat breeders and seed dealers. Time paths of adoption are projected for potential improvements in wheat yields and quality characteristics. Copyright 1996, Oxford University Press.

Wheat Variety Selection to Maximize Returns and Minimize Risk: An Application of Portfolio Theory

“…wheat producers in Kansas take into account end-use quality in varietal selection decisions, but economic considerations lead many farmers to plant higher-yielding varieties, some of which are characterized by low milling and baking qualities'' (p. 209). Barkley and Porter (1996) also found that yield stability was a significant determinant of variety selection decisions, as discussed in Porter and Barkley (1995).…”

“…The authors concluded that, ''the major implication of this result is the need to recognize the importance of competing hypotheses in the applied study of technology adoption'' (p. 544). Barkley and Porter (1996) analyzed Kansas wheat producer variety selection decisions for the period 1974-1993, and found that variety choice was statistically related to production characteristics such as disease resistance and end-use qualities. They concluded, ''.…”

“…Previous studies of wheat variety selection include Barkley and Porter (1996), Dahl et al (2004), and Detlefsen and Jensen (2004). These studies used the neoclassical input characteristic model developed by Ladd and Martin (1976), and extended by Melton, Colette, and Willham (1994), to derive the demand for each wheat variety, given varietal characteristics such as agronomic factors, end-use quality, and yield stability.…”

“…The model assumes that an individual wheat producer maximizes expected profits, E(p), given a normal wheat output distribution Q w ; N(E(Q w ), s 2 ), where Q w is wheat output in bushels, E(Q w ) is the mean, and s 2 the variance. Following Barkley and Porter (1996), the profit equation to be maximized is in Equation (1).…”

“…Following Carlton (1979) and Barkley and Porter (1996), the costs of yield variability (l) are assumed to be linearly increasing with the variability of output (s 2 ). Wheat output is related to wheat characteristics: q ij (j 5 1,. .…”