The Determinants of Mismatch Between Students and Colleges

Abstract

We use the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 cohort to examine mismatch between student ability and college quality. Mismatch has implications for the design of state higher education systems and for student aid policy. The data indicate substantial amounts of both undermatch (high ability students at low quality colleges) and overmatch (low ability students at high quality colleges). Student application and enrollment decisions, rather than college admission decisions, drive most mismatch. Financial constraints, information, and the public college options facing each student all affect the probability of mismatch. More informed students attend higher quality colleges, even when doing so involves overmatching.

Access to 4-Year Public Colleges and Degree Completion

“…Students who attend selective institutions, which tend to have more resources available for student support, have better education outcomes, even after controlling for student ability" (White House 2014).We have clear evidence that students, particularly low-income ones, do not attend the highest quality colleges available to them (Bowen, Chingos, and McPherson 2009;Dillon and Smith 2013;Hoxby and Avery 2013;Smith, Pender, and Howell 2013) and that initial college choices can be altered by relatively low-cost interventions (Bettinger et al 2012;Carrell and Sacerdote 2013;Hoxby and Turner 2013;Castleman, Page, and Schooley 2014;Pallais 2015;Smith, Hurwitz, and Howell 2015). Less clear is the extent to which changing such college choices affects students' longer-run outcomes, such as degree completion and labor market earnings.…”

“…These include the extent to which postsecondary institutional factors explain dropping college completion rates among US college enrollers (Belley and Lochner 2007;Bound, Lovenheim, and Turner 2010;Bailey and Dynarski 2011); the relative importance of "match" quality versus absolute quality (Dillon and Smith 2013) and how that, in turn, informs debates about affirmative action (Arcidiacono and Lovenheim 2016); the extent to which informational interventions like the College Scorecard website can improve student outcomes by changing college choices (Hurwitz and Smith 2016); and, finally, what impact recent proposals to make community college free will have on students choosing between that sector and other options.…”

Every Little Bit Counts: The Impact of High-speed Internet on the Transition to College

“…While college access efforts, programs, and organizations are designed to help students overcome the optimization problem they face, there is an emerging literature that demonstrates that students often do not have full or correct information when making this consequential decision (Dillon and Smith 2013;Hoxby and Turner, 2015). A natural question follows -how can we encourage students to apply to and attend colleges that best fit their needs?…”

Who believes in me? The effect of student–teacher demographic match on teacher expectations

“…Her decision is sub-optimal in the sense that, given unbiased (accurate) beliefs, she would have matriculated. Morgan et al (2013) and Dillon and Smith (2013) argue that parents' negatively biased beliefs could lead to under-investment in their children's education, especially in neighborhoods with few college graduates.…”